Sunday, June 14, 2015

What a Meteorological Mess!!

Gulf Coast, Southern and Central Plains and southern Midwest really need to pay attention to the weather the next few days.

The National Hurricane Center says there is a 70% chance of a tropical storm developing over the next 48 hours and it should run aground in Texas.

Where it comes ashore makes a tremendous difference. The computer model below forecasts, correctly I believe, more than a foot of rain where the tropical system comes on shore. If that happens to be in the Houston metro area, they are going to have another major flood mess. The heaviest rains could fall anywhere between the two blue arrows (below).
As to the path of the deepest moisture once the storm moves inland, it is almost anyone's guess. That is a phrase I wish we never had to use in modern meteorology but it is accurate in this case. There is one computer model showing more than a foot of rain falling 50 mi. southwest of Wichita and there are others that show the heaviest rain in the southern parts of Illinois-Indiana-Ohio.

I am confident some areas will have more than a foot of rain before the end of this week. Stay tuned.

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