Complete Update: 3:10pm

There are two areas of primary tornado concern:
Landspouts are genuine tornadoes but are weaker than the type associated with supercell tornadoes. If a warning is issued, take cover as you would for any tornado situation.

The main event seems to be getting started near the Red River and just to the northeast. As I was starting this update, the NWS Storm Prediction Center seems to agree and they updated their tornado odds to the "main event" area in their 3pm outlook.
Five percent is a significant probability of tornadoes. The hatched area is where violent tornadoes are forecast to occur. The 30% probability is quite high. It is defined as a 30% chance of one or more tornadoes within 25 mi. of any given point. It does include Little Rock, Hot Springs, Mena, and Arkadelphia.

The first large supercell thunderstorm has formed along the Red River with a second storm rapidly developing to the north at 3:10pm. It will move to the northeast with more storms forming and intensifying.


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