Blizzard of Oz II

Oy Vey!

Not only is a second winter storm looming, our tools are all over the place with this one. So, for now, this is a lower confidence forecast. That is reflected in several ways:
The light green in eastern Colorado is a blizzard watch. The dark green-blue is a winter storm watch. In between, nothing. No watch. I empathize with the forecasters in Dodge City and Goodland who have not issued watches because the tools/models are all over the place.

Here is an example. This is a composite of all of the models (except the European) as they apply to Wichita. They range from zero to 30+ inches!

So, what does the European say? For Wichita, we are a little island of lighter snow. Note how raggedness of the forecast snow field. That was not the case with the Blizzard of Oz.

So, this is why I'm presenting this (still preliminary) forecast in probability form:

Probability of 2" or More
This is valid from 6am Sunday to 6am Tuesday. Note: The eastern half of this area will get snow beyond this forecast period.

Probability of 8" or More

One thing about which I am confident: Winds will be significantly higher with the sequel than they were with the Blizzard of Oz. This will mean drifting will be a problem.

I think some of the problems with this forecast are due to the storm still being partly off the coast when the models were run. It should be inland by now so this morning's tools should be more consistent (I hope). Stay tuned.

Later today or tomorrow, I'll have some thoughts about general weather forecasting up on the blog later today or tomorrow.


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