Monday, August 6, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto

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If you are heading to the Yuccatan this week you'll probably want to rethink your plans. What will likely be, by then, Hurricane Ernesto will be striking tomorrow night.

Ernesto will not be affecting the U.S.

Note: This is the storm that was (depending on what blog you read) going to break the drought in the central U.S., was going to be a "super hurricane" (because of the warm water in the Gulf), etc. etc. This is why I wrote the posting saying there is no skill at forecasting hurricanes more than a week out.

We'll cover tropical storms and hurricanes on the blog but we are not going to join in the extreme hype that seems to pop up whenever there is a vague threat to the U.S.


  1. Mike, the track forecast put out by the NHC is rarely wrong. Is that a correct assumption?

  2. Their forecasts are usually pretty good up to day 3 or 4. They want to extend their forecasts to day 7 which would be a big mistake.


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