A blog about weather, climate, and science. Occasionally, we'll post on other topics of interest.
Mike,I've found that 'hole' to be prevalent on the last few runs of the NAM and GFS... have you determined a meteorological explanation for how that could happen?
The hole must have been on vacation last week. Seth, meteorologists in Wichita have a bit of gallows humor about all of the snow forecasts that bust in town when they are perfectly correct 25 mi. in all directions from the city limits. I have no scientific explanation. It is probably coincidence.
I'd certainly be interested in a post-mortem on these two storms once we're in the clear... Incidentally, as a Civil Engineer, we discuss flooding and rain events in terms of recurrence interval (10 year, 100 year, etc).. What would these type of recurrence would these snow events be considered? And what is the probability of two storms of this magnitude hitting within days of each other in the Wichita area.
Assuming we get 6" or more, I would think we would be in the 75 to 100 year range, but that is an educated guess.