Saturday, October 14, 2023

How Did the Tornado Forecast Work Out?

We make it a point to evaluate our forecasts of extreme weather. The forecast is immediately below. 

Here is a map (red dots) of where the tornadoes actually occurred.

The "enhanced" risk forecast was excellent. It gets an "A." The "significant" risk was terrible: not a single tornado occurred and the tornado west of Salina was not included in the significant risk. Significant gets an "F."

There is an isolated tornado tornado in eastern Colorado. It was so far from the usual tornado triggering mechanisms that I rate that as a freak occurrence. 

So, overall, this forecast gets a "C." I'll try to do better next time.

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