And, while the paramedics were putting the seriously injured you into the ambulance, an attorney ran up and tried to shove a business card into your (broken) hand and started to explain all the grounds you had for a lawsuit: improperly maintained road, poorly designed air bags, et cetera. Would you appreciate the attorney's actions?
Now, let's assume that, instead of an attorney, it was a meteorologist who ran up to you on your gurney and told you all of the ways that climate change contributed to the accident. Do you think he would win any friends? Or, would it be better to wait until the crisis was over?
During yesterday's fatal flash flood in Dallas, a number of meteorologists began tweeting about the alleged relationship between global warming and the flash flood -- even as, simultaneously, news reports were explaining that people were being pulled out of cars.
To me, these are mildly unseemly, not because of their message, but because of their timing. It is similar to the ambulance chasing attorney. While the event is in progress, the focus by meteorologists should be accurate warnings and followups and, by everyone else, getting those needing rescue and medical attention taken care of.
This is especially true since a correlation between global warming and more flash floods is not accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC is considered the "gold standard" on the topic.
IPCC’s 2022 report says in its "North America" section (p 1938):
Observed trends in extreme precipitation events are more difficult to detect with confidence, because the natural variability of precipitation is so large and the observational database is limited.
They even highlight the above in yellow. You can find the entire section here.
The U.S. National Climate Assessment comes to a similar conclusion:
However, in U.S. regions, no formal attribution of precipitation changes to anthropogenic forcing has been made so far, so indirect attribution of flooding changes is not possible. Hence, no formal attribution of observed flooding changes to anthropogenic forcing has been claimed.[bold type theirs]
Finally, per Dr. Roger Pielke Junior's peer-reviewed work, U.S. flood damages are a tiny fraction of what they were eight decades ago when measured against the U.S. gross national product.
Since the hypothesis that climate change has increased flash floods is not accepted, it is hard to understand what weather scientists accomplish by the "rush to tweet" while these events are in progress. I strongly recommend we cease doing it.
To be clear, I do not object to a scientific discussion after the event is over, even if the science is not generally accepted. That is how science advances. But, I believe we should stop with the rush to tweet while hydro-meteorological disasters are in progress.
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding. Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map. In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state. Here is the updated (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state. The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area. While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge). Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert. Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding. Here is a map of current watc
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday. --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon. Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far. Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses. Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased. Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway.
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