Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Validating Yesterday's Forecast

I made a forecast of severe weather over southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma yesterday. It was terrible. But, I make it a point to publicly validate my forecasts, so here goes. 
  • Tornado potential: Elevated. One to three possible.  No tornadoes occurred. 
  • Hail potential: High, up to 2" in diameter  No large hail was reported. 
  • Damaging thunderstorm winds: Elevated, up to 60 mph   None before 7pm (it occurred after).
  • Lightning risk: High in Kansas, very high in Oklahoma Three people hit by lightning near Matfield Green, Kansas. 
Unfortunately, the lightning forecast was correct and it resulted in three injuries. The rest of the forecast was very wrong and I apologize for making a poor forecast. 

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