Saturday, May 18, 2013

Weekend Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Updated tornado and hail forecast for today.

The tornado forecast is difficult today: That is because wind speeds about 15,000 ft. above the ground are a little lower than usually associated with violent tornadoes. There is even a chance that no tornadoes will occur. That said, there is often a balance between winds and instability. The latter is off the charts this afternoon and evening. So, I'm betting on tornadoes.

The time when tornadoes are most likely is roughly between 5pm and 1am CDT. Of course, that means serious tornadoes may occur after dark when their approach cannot be seen. Believe the warnings, not your eyes. 

Regarding the above graphic: Five percent is a significant tornado threat and ten percent is quite elevated. The hatching is where violent tornadoes may occur between about 5pm until about 9pm. After that time, I would include the area in the red box from about 8pm to 1am.

Very large hail is a near certainty and it may be baseball sized or larger, especially in the hatched area. Please put your car, lawn furniture, and anything that might be damaged by large hail indoors.

This Sunday's combined outlook (i.e., tornado, hail, damaging wind). The numbers are very high for a second day outlook.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.