Saturday, September 15, 2018

6:40pm Florence Forecast: MORE CATASTROPHIC RAINS

The Death Toll in North Carolina is Now 11
In South Carolina One Has Died

Here is the output of several reliable computer models that I have been weighing and considering along with other data during the last hour. They show the already record flooding is going to continue to worsen. Both I-95 and I-40 are closed with more roads closing by the hour.

Here is the amount of rain that has fallen up until 5pm EDT. The area of 20 inches or more is huge.
click to enlarge
If the rain stopped now, many rivers would set records and some areas would flood that have never flooded before.

Forecast of Additional Rainfall
This is a very high-resolution model that forecasts the rainfall from 2pm today to 8am Sunday.
It is forecasting an additional 25" during that period of time (white circle).

Here is a little longer range forecast from 2pm EDT today through 2am Tuesday morning.
Now, this forecast overlaps with the one above. What it is showing is a storm total (this 31" forecast of additional rain plus what has already fallen) of around 50 inches!!

As the storm moves west the Appalachians come into focus.
That is 16"+ in the higher elevations. That will cause liquification and mudslides.

What now? Absolutely, positively do the following:
  • Put together a "go kit" with passports, current utility bill (to establish residence), birth certificates, family heirlooms and other vital and difficult to replace material.
  • Keep your car filled with gas. 
  • If you are in a flash flood warning, climb first. 
  • Turn around, don't drown. Scroll down to see what it looks like to nearly die in flash flooding.
  • If you live in a known flood-prone area, evacuate now. 
There are enough wind gusts left in Florence to uproot trees in areas with saturated soils. There will also be additional tornadoes.
"Charlotte Observer"
If a tornado warning is issued, go to a closet or bath in the middle of the home. Do not go to the basement given the current flash flooding risks.

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