Update on the Tornado Threat

I'm revising my thinking on the chance of tornadoes in the U.S. this afternoon because of conditions close to home. Temperatures west of Wichita have gotten into the low 90's, warmer than I was originally forecasting. IF thunderstorms are able to break what is called the "cap" (dry air ~10,000' above the ground), they will go severe very quickly and there is a chance -- just a chance -- of a tornado or two.

This is what meteorologists call a "thermodynamic" (instability)-driven event rather than a "dynamic" (low pressure moving across the area) event. This forecaster has less skill with the former rather than the latter.

So, if you live in the area outlined and thunderstorms approach, please check on the latest weather information.


  1. Mike:

    Reading wx forecast discussions, I see the terms 'cap' (like you mention above), 'CAPE', and 'CIN'. What's the difference between the 3 and how do they relate to T-storm development?


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