A Hurricane Next Week?

A number of weather blogs tonight are mentioning that a hurricane may strike the U.S. next week. Well, it is that time of year.

That said, there is no way to forecast where a hurricane may occur ten days in advance. As I say in my seminars, "since the advent of The Weather Channel (and, now, weather blogs) we have ten days of anxiety followed by three days of warnings." My point is that there is no reason to worry about a potential hurricane until it is about three days out.  

So, chill. 

The computer models predict nine out of the last two hurricanes (i.e., they forecast hurricanes much more often than they occur in the real world). 


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