Experimental Thunderstorm Wind Forecast

Here are two experimental forecasts that look reasonable enough that I wanted to bring them to your attention. In the posting below, I talked about the relatively high potential for damaging thunderstorm winds in a number of areas. These break it down further.

Forecast of what the radar will look like at 5pm CDT:

Here is a forecast of thunderstorm-generated winds for 5pm CDT:
NWS forecast, click to enlarge
Wind scale in knots (multiply by 1.15 to get mph, i.e., 60 kt = 69 mph)
Because these forecasts cannot be taken literally (i.e., depending on them to have the thunderstorms in exactly the right place at exactly 5pm) the takeaway here is that if you live roughly within 50 mi. of Kansas City, St. Joseph, or Lawrence, keep an eye on the weather later today because some areas may have winds in excess of 70 mph.

Similarly, if you live roughly in the area from Great Bend to Dodge City, the forecasts of strong thunderstorms look reasonable there, as well.

If strong thunderstorms approach, today would be a great day to bring in lawn furniture, tampolines, and your car to keep them from being damaged and to keep the former from damaging surrounding structures if they should be picked up.

Since these are experimental forecasts, I cannot be sure they will be correct but the situation is well worth monitoring.


  1. We went through that sort of storm last night about 10 pm in Omaha. People are still without power 12 hours later.

  2. Looks like the computer was about 3 hours too slow.... they're there now!

  3. It is VERY important to note that models are GUIDANCE, and should never be taken as a literal forecast.

  4. Agreed, see paragraph under wind scale.

    I'm soliciting comments about the forecast in a new posting above.


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