Behind the Scenes at the Symphony

By -

I want to introduce you to two of the hardest working people around, Emily Hunter (left), the executive director of Symphony in the Flint Hills and Linda Craighead the site manager of the event. While everyone was having a great time, these two were in constant motion behind the scenes to insure everything went well. 

From 9 o’clock Saturday morning through 10:45pm, the three of us worked together, along with the meteorologists at WeatherData’s forecast center, to insure the 7,200 people (a complete sell-out) were safe in the remote location. Lightning, hail, high winds, tornadoes and flash floods were all possible the day of the event because of a stationary front right over the site and extremely unstable air to the south.  I spent virtually the entire day glued to the computer because of volatility of the weather situation.


At 10:30am, when we had the official weather meeting, things looked grim at first glance: There were thunderstorms 9 miles to the southeast and 12 miles northeast of the site and a drizzle was falling. However, given the newly developed tools created by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center, I was able to confidently forecast that the event could be safely held, at least until 9pm, even though things weren’t ideal at decision time. I said the skies would start to clear around 1pm.
Banners depicting the bluestem tallgrass accented with musical instruments. 

The first forecast turned out to be excellent. The first patches of blue sky showed themselves at 1:16pm.

The second forecast held as well. We were able to get through the entire concert in good shape.  We were hopeful that we would get through the after-concert activities (music, a dance, etc.) but Mother Nature intervened. 
Towering cumulus clouds southwest of the site shortly before the concert began indicated the unstable atmosphere that was ripe for thunderstorm development.

A small area of thunderstorms with both in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning developed south southwest of the site and started moving directly toward it. While conditions had been unfavorable for thunderstorm development prior to sunset, the tools I had indicated that those thunderstorms could be sustained. Given that it would take people, once informed, 45 minutes to walk to their cars (there was no safe shelter at the site, which is selected for its remoteness deep in the Flint Hills) I advised Emily to spread the word that lightning was possible and that people should move to the safety of their cars. The forecast caused the post-concert parties to be shortened.
The finale of the concert. 

Well, Mother Nature surprised me and the storms dissipated before reaching the site.

As I write in Warnings, the next challenge for weather science is to cut down on the false alarms. The tools I had indicated conditions were right for thunderstorm intensification (which did indeed occur about an hour later.) Meteorology is doing a very good job getting alerts out before dangerous storms, but our techniques to tell when storms are going to weaken are not as mature.

From the people I have spoken with, no one seemed too disappointed. I believe people realize that it is better to err on the side of safety – getting to their cars dry, at a leisurely pace, and safely.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

By -
Image
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area.  While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge).  Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert.  Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding.  Here is a map of current watc
Read more

Update on Tornado and Wind Potential; 12 Noon PDT

By -
Image
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday.  --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon.  Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far.  Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses.  Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased.  Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not  traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway. 
Read more