Thursday, June 24, 2010

Climate Model Uncertainty

For those who have seen my global warming presentation, I discuss the high-level of uncertainty associated with climate models. If we can't forecast weather in a consistently accurate manner ten days in the future, there is no basis to believe we can do so ten years in the future. For those who would like to learn a little more about model uncertainty, go to this lightly technical article. The quote below sums things up nicely.

But for all that was controverted, the basic physical uncertainties were not disputed. It turns out that uncertainties in the energetic responses of Earth climate systems are more than 10 times larger than the entire energetic effect of increased CO2.15 If the uncertainty is larger than the effect, the effect itself becomes moot. If the effect itself is debatable, then what is the IPCC talking about? And from where comes the certainty of a large CO2 impact on climate?

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