Sunday, July 14, 2019

Outstanding Hurricane Coverage Commentary Out of New Orleans

I recommend reading the entire piece. I agree the Times-Picayune did an outstanding job.

Some comments: When the New Orleans office of the National Weather Service and the New Orleans office of the Army Corps of Engineers tells us the river is going to crest at 20 ft. and risks overtopping the levees, I believe it would be irresponsible for me to fail to pass that information along. So, I did.

As to the weather brought by Barry, my original forecast, made Tuesday morning both before and independently of the National Hurricane Center's first forecast, was accurate (Barry's eventual landfall at the star, below).
However, you'll notice you did not see the usual evacuation and preparation suggestions for a hurricane in this blog. Why? It was clear to me they was not necessary and I did not wish to encourage evacuation from New Orleans or surrounding areas. And, while I passed along the NWS's too high rainfall forecasts, they were not accompanied by exhortations regarding flash flooding with the exception of the area around Baton Rouge.

My big concern was power failures and I said the inland winds would be strong enough to cause them as far north at I-20. Here is a map from a few minutes ago, with the approximate location of I-20 in white, and that forecast is looking good, unfortunately.
Why was that aspect so important? As I wrote Thursday:
Without air conditioning, the mid-summer heat will be life-threatening as opposed to a more seasonal September or October hurricane.

So, I believe the forecasts on this blog added considerable value and avoided some of the errors made by the national media. As always, comments are appreciated.

H/T: Roger Pielke, Jr.

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