Thursday, July 11, 2019

9am Update on (Forecasted) Hurricane Barry

Life threatening flooding and 
power failures are likely. 

Scroll Down For Updated Information For
New Orleans as of 12:30pm CDT

The weather system that is forecasted to become Barry is still a mess this morning.

However, conditions are still very favorable for strengthening. The National Hurricane Center is still forecasting the system to reach hurricane strength and move inland along the Louisiana coast.
H = hurricane. S = tropical storm
Torrential rains will cause major flooding, especially with the already wet conditions.
New Orleans is in a perilous situation potential Mississippi River flooding magnified by the heavy rains and likely storm surge if this is an accurate forecast.

I've also noticed something that concerns me. It comes from the ECMWF model which is usually the most accurate in these situations and that is the winds do not decrease as the storm moves across Louisiana. Below is a map of the forecast wind gusts.
There are several areas of gusts in the 75 to 85 mph range both along the coast and inland. In New Orleans, again stipulating a perfect forecast, the gusts are expected to be around 60 mph.

Given the already wet conditions and forecast heavy rains, large numbers of trees will be blown over and power failures could be both geographically widespread and could last for days. With the mid-summer sun angle and humidity, heat stress will be a serious issue in the wake of the storm without air conditioning. With rainfalls of 15+" in some areas, there will be extensive flooding which will make repair of the electrical grid extremely challenging. Please prepare accordingly.

--- Updated Mississippi River Data ---
The NWS and the Army Corps of Engineers has lowered the forecast Mississippi River crest from 20'  (the height of the levees) to 19 feet. While New Orleans is not out of the woods completely, let's hope this trend holds. That stipulated, please note the cautions, below:

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