Hurricane Irma: Here We Go

By -
The earliest the eye of Irma could make landfall in the 
United States is Sunday. 

The above sentence is an important item to bear in mind. It is also possible the eye of the storm will never reach the United States. Here is the latest NHC forecast for Irma's center. It is vital to keep in mind that center of the storm could be anywhere in the area outlined in white.
So, the storm may go over Cuba and be shredded by Cuba's mountains. It could move into the Gulf. And, yes, there is still a small chance it will turn north and parallel the U.S. coast for a time. It is important to note that while Irma is Cat 5 now, weather science has very little skill in forecasting intensity five days in advance. Since posting this, the new (18Z) GFS model has a different path and the pressure in the eye has dropped another 6mb to 920 mb. It has Irma missing Florida and making landfall farther north. The point I'm trying to emphasize is we have little skill in forecasting the location or intensity of landfall at this time.  (6:00pm)

News reports say there are long lines at grocery stories in Florida. This may be a bit premature. AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions' client Lowes has a hurricane supply preparation list. We are working with Lowes and others to make sure the right products are available at their stores that could be in the path of the storm.

So, What Do I Do Now?

These lists are created for a typical family, not those with special needs.
  • Make sure you have enough prescription medicine to last through a multi-day evacuation. 
  • Have a plan to care for infirm friends or relatives. 
  • Check the hurricane supply preparation list (above) to make sure you have anything you might need.
  • If you want a generator, get it installed now. Use an electrician to hook a generator into your home, do not try to do it yourself. 

I'll update this tomorrow morning.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

By -
Image
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area.  While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge).  Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert.  Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding.  Here is a map of current watc
Read more

Update on Tornado and Wind Potential; 12 Noon PDT

By -
Image
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday.  --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon.  Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far.  Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses.  Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased.  Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not  traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway. 
Read more