Update on Tornado Threat for Late Today and Tonight

Here is the latest forecast from the NWS Storm Prediction Center valid from now until 7am CDT Saturday:

Tornado Threat
Since this morning, the "hatching" had been added which means that tornadoes of F-2 or stronger intensity are possible. I agree with this change. Tornadoes are possible after dark!

Hail Threat
This is also substantial. The hatching indicates hailstones ≥ 2" in diameter are possible. The 30% means there is a 1 in 3 chance of large hail (at least 1") with 25 mi. of any given point in the red area.

Below is a graphic from an NWS experimental thunderstorm prediction model portrays supercell thunderstorms moving northeast and ENE in northwest Oklahoma this evening. These seem to be healthy candidates to produce large hail.  Do not regard this map as the exact location of the storms, it should be used as an indication of the region threatened.

Note: I will have an update around 1pm pertaining to the tornado risk for Saturday and Saturday night. 


Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over