Here is a complete update on Hurricane Irma.
The hurricane has a central pressure of 925 mb with winds of 155 mph. That is two miles per hour below the Category 5 wind threshold. The image below is from 3:07pm CDT. Florida is in the
Even yesterday, there was a fair amount of spread to the computer models' forecast path. Now, all of them are across the Florida Peninsula but the effects of the exact path and intensity are quite significant.
AccuWeather is forecasting the eye to move across the central Florida Keys and then into south central Florida and north up the Peninsula. This means somewhat lower -- but still dangerous -- winds in Miami than I depicted below. This AccuWeather's forecast of winds across Florida and the most likely scenario, in my opinion.
IF rapid re-intensification occurs, winds could be a little stronger and a little farther west. So has to give you the range of possibilities, here is a map wind gusts in that scenario.
Here is a map of the most likely time of arrival of tropical storm force (sustained 40 mph) winds.
We now turn from the threat from wind to the threat from water. The red area is a storm surge warning and pink is a storm surge watch.
From AccuWeather's analytics group, the map below is a forecast of the likelihood of structural damage and power failures weighted by population density.
There is also a serious risk of flooding. The map below is total rainfall expected from Irma.
- Turn off the gas, electricity and water before you leave.
- Photograph your possessions for insurance purposes. If possible, upload them to one of the online photo repositories for backup.
- Make sure you have extra cash.
- If you are concerned about the condition of the food in your refrigerator, put a coin on top of an ice cube. If the power fails and temperatures rise in the appliance, you'll find the coin at the bottom of the cube when you return.
- Make sure you have your meds.
That is the last comprehensive update for the evening. I will do a brief update later this evening.