Saturday, August 27, 2011

11:40pm Irene Update

AccuWeather has a great graphic showing the future of the storm.
The threats I have been talking about all week from NYC Metro east across Long Island and into coastal CT-RI and, to a lesser extent, MA are still present. If the center goes over NYC, it will be very interesting to see what the effect of the unusually large difference between Irene's surface winds and its atypical strong winds aloft on the high rise buildings.

I am very concerned about major flooding. If you live in a 200-year flood plain in the area outlined above, be thinking about what you will need to evacuate and what you will want to take with you.

Here is the position (e = eye) of the storm at 11:25pm Eastern.
click to enlarge this or other graphics

The experimental wind forecast system shows 70 knot (81mph) winds over New York Harbor at 4am EDT (give or take an hour) with a very small area of 80 knot winds (92 mph) just offshore.

If this a perfect forecast, there will be coastal and tidal flooding in NYC. Wind gusts at the top of the high rises in lower and mid-town Manhattan will be around 110-120 mph in gusts.

Finally, a tornado watch is in effect for NYC and points southwest until 5am EDT. The tornado threat for NYC will continue until mid-morning. Severe damaging tornadoes occurred in VA and DE today.

If you are just finding Meteorological Musings, please feel free to look around while you are here.

This will be the last update of the night.


  1. Newsflash - inaccuweather - Irene is not over North Carolina anymore. Update your map at 11:45 at night for cryin out loud...

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