Hurricane Isaias Update: 9am Friday

Isaias is looking a bit less "healthy" on infrared satellite than it did around midnight.
The pressure has dropped slightly overnight to 990mb but the sustained winds are still 80 mph. 

Here is the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
Brown is the area of hurricane-force winds (75 mph or higher). Amber is the area of 40 mph or higher sustained winds. The red over the Bahamas is the hurricane warning. The yellow along the Florida coast is a tropical storm watch. The black dots with the "H" is the most likely position of the hurricane. The white (a/k/a, "the cone") is the possible position of the hurricane. Please note that it includes a landfall in Florida. 

Winds are forecast to peak around 100 mph as it travels over the Bahama but weaken a bit near the Florida coast. 

Frankly, the models are all over the place this morning, which is why I am only depicting the forecast through 72 hours. For reasons unknown, the NOAA Gulfstream jet, which is used to sample the atmosphere around the storm, has not been used with Isaias and is not expected to be used today, per the NHC aircraft reconnaissance schedule. That is disappointing as some of the uncertainty around this forecast might be resolved if we had those additional measurements. 

If you live in Florida, I urge you -- in addition to normal hurricane preparations -- to read the American Meteorological Society's statement pertaining to sheltering with COVID.

Update: 10:10am. Satellite and hurricane hunter data both indicate the storm has weakened a bit the last few hours. 


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