"Warmest" Year? Not Quite

Update: 4pm CST.  Dr. Gavin Schmidt of NASA released a table showing that 2014 is likely NOT the "hottest year ever" (ever = since 1850) after all of the publicity of the last two days.
Neither NOAA nor NASA have the odds of 2014 being the warmest year above 50%. Sheesh.


Here is a composite of the temperature readings of the four traditional, long-term metrics of the earth's temperature.
You see that 2014 is nowhere near the "warmest ever" (of course, "ever" in this case means since 1850 when the Little Ice Age was ending), in spite of what the media is shouting. In case you are keeping score, this composite is based on HADCRUT, GISS, RSS and UAH and can be seen here. It only goes back to 1979 because that is when earth's temperatures began to be measured from space.

The "warmest ever" story is based on a NOAA metric that was invented when the traditional metrics did not conform to the hypothesis. Climate 'science' is different than other sciences. When the data does not conform to the hypothesis, the goalposts are moved.

Addition: If you want to see how the above compares to an IPCC model prediction, see the graphic below.
Graphic via WattsUpWithThat which has more on this subject here.


  1. It is well known that (A)MSU satellite measurements are falsified with respect to surface measurements by El Nino, that is they fail ground truth when there is a big El Nino as in 1998.

    They also have trouble with areas when there is snow and ice on the ground which is why they do not report on measurements at higher latitudes than 70 S and 82.5 N


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