A Wonderful Explanation From the NWS in Aberdeen

This is a range of model forecasts out ten days:  
We are getting fairly good as saying "a storm is on the way" four and five days out. We now have a fair amount (big snow or little snow) out about three days. But, take anything beyond that with a big grain of salt.


  1. Is it just me, or do the models seem to have a pattern in the consensus of slight overestimation at Day3, and slight underestimation at Day2 and 1? It seems we've had a lot of systems in the past few years where the consensus number followed this pattern. Just an impression...I may be all wet.

  2. I'm talking specifically in the plains...I don't pay much attention to snow totals elsewhere than at home.

  3. Yes, Scott, I have seen that pattern, too, but they seem to improve again in the last 12 hours.


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