Finally: Some Relief for California

This is the ECMWF model (via Dr. Ryan Maue) forecast of precipitation in California over the next ten days. Two sloppy, poorly organized weather systems will move across the state…and, those are the types that typically bring the most rain.
These rains will not break the drought but they will certainly be helpful.


  1. Why would "sloppy, poorly organized" systems bring the most rain? Seems like strong, well organized systems would have the stronger winds (or more organized wind direction) that would permit orographic enhancement of precipitation.

  2. Brian -- good question. Strong, organized systems are most likely to bring a blizzard or tornado outbreak.

    When it comes to rain both the research and my experience indicate heavy rain is most likely with the weaker, less well organized systems. Why? The lack of organization causes them to persist rather than move on. Second, the wider area of rising air (rather than more concentrated as in a tornado outbreak) causes a larger area of heavy rain.


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