10:10pm EST Winter Storm Update


I have looked at more data and it looks like the ice is going to make it to Raleigh and even southeast Virginia in sufficient quantities to cause at least scattered power failures.

I'm running out of adjectives but, if I am correct about all of this, power will be out for weeks in places. Shelters will become an urgent need. If you haven't prepared and the roads are still OK, check these suggestions for both ice storms and blizzards.


Ice Storm
According to reports from electric utilities, 9,200 homes and businesses are already without power in North and South Carolina. Unfortunately, there are tens of thousands more to come.

AccuWeather Regional Radar at 9:03pm shows "round two" -- the main ice and snow storm -- increasing in size and intensity (scroll down and compare to 3:45pm). In Atlanta, things are going downhill after midnight as the icy rain moves in.

Here is the forecast of type of precipitation that will be falling at 7am EST:

By noon, the ice will have spread (colors as above):

The maps below are total accumulated precipitation for the 24 hours ending at 7pm Wednesday:
Dr. Ryan Maue, multiply the snow amounts depicted X 9 to get the snow accumulation
Here is a close-up of the Atlanta area and east along I-20 where the worst ice is forecast.
The above area, especially with the darkest shading, will see severe damage to the electrical and cellular telephone infrastructure that will take days to weeks to repair. Shelters will be necessary. Here is some advice from the CDC for dealing with power failures

Here is the forecast weather for 7pm EST Wednesday:

Snow Storm - Blizzard Conditions in Places
While I am quite confident with regard to the ice storm, I have less confidence in the amounts of snow and the wind gusts. 

The newest model shows the snow pattern below:

This hits the I-95 corridor very hard. In some areas, wind gusts about 35 mph are forecast.  


  1. Wow. This snow pattern model model has been trending toward higher snowfall for the northeast this whole time. What model is this anyway?


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