First Significant Seasonal Rain in Northern California

This is AccuWeather's display of the European Model's (ECMWF) rainfall forecast for the next ten days. San Francisco (International Airport) should receive about a half inch according to the ECMWF.

A second model, the U.S. GFS, is forecasting very heavy rains from days 10 to 16.

This forecast, which should be considered preliminary, shows rain over most all of the state with significant amounts north and west of I-15. Rainfall amounts of more than five inches are forecast over the mountains and 2-4 inch amounts over Northern California at lower elevations. This model does have a bias toward being a bit too aggressive with its forecasts beyond about 12 days but, in this case, amounts seem only slightly high.

Diving deeper into the data indicates San Francisco International Airport should have about .35 inches the first ten days then 2-3 inches from days 11 to 16.

If these forecasts are correct, the 2013-2014 rainfall season would be getting off to a good start.


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