My Personal Storm Analysis

This posting is for weather geeks...

There is a surface low over Guymon, OK.
UCAR base map and weather station plot
From the low a dry line (dashed orange) extends across the eastern Texas Panhandle. A warm front extends from the low to just north of Oklahoma City. I expect the low to deepen and move slightly east or southeast by mid-afternoon. The warm front should move into the area near the Kansas-Oklahoma border.

Along and just north of the warm front conditions will be right for tornadoes that could become violent. If I had to issue a highest risk area right now it would look like this and would be in effect from about 4:30pm to 1am Sunday.

There is still a significant risk north of this area, this represents the highest risk only.

My east end extends farther than some other forecasters and has since Thursday evening. Why? There is going to extremely strong difluence along the axis of my red threat area. The new 4km model now breaks out thunderstorms -- along the line of my thinking.
Simulated radar forecast for 6pm CDT
There are times when thunderstorms east of the main area go tornadic so this is my thinking.

I will be chasing today. You can follow me @usweatherexpert and I often send photos. My initial stop will be Pratt where I will reevaluate the weather. More likely than not, I will head for Greensburg or Protection.

Storm chasers: If you are in the vicinity of Greensburg, please stop and buy gas, snacks or have a meal. They really appreciate the business and you will be supporting the town in its recovery. 


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