Monday, January 7, 2013

Too Much of a Good Thing?

On November 30, I ran a piece called Is This the Long-Awaited Pattern Change? in which I theorized that a change in the configuration of high pressure systems in the northern hemisphere would allow a wetter weather pattern to begin about December tenth that would lead to easing the drought in the central U.S.

So far, that forecast has worked out beautifully. Here is the observed rainfall from December 1 to today:
Note the heavy rainfalls in the southeast part of the map.

The computer models for the next fifteen days are forecasting too much of a good thing.  First up is from tomorrow through Tuesday the 15th. The br
Widespread amount of five inches or more are forecast with a few spots getting more than 10 inches.

For the following seven days, the heavy rain is forecast to persist in the same region.

If perfect forecasts, some areas would receive more than a foot of rain.

Hopefully, flooding will not be a serious issue as parts of this area are still in a drought.

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