Monday, March 1, 2021

An Amazing Two-Week Forecast

Modern meteorological models, when used by meteorologists who are both well-trained and experienced, are a marvel. 

Ten days ago, on Friday, February 19, we ran this story: Heads Up: Southeast United States.

Now, with four rivers at major flood levels and a dozen or so flooding at moderate levels, the correction between the forecast and actual rainfall is remarkable. Below is the rainfall for the seven days ending at 7am this morning. 
The dark stripes of red are amounts of 6" or more. A few spots received eight inches. 

The NWS's seven-day rainfall forecast continues to show moderate  
rains from Mississippi to the Georgia coast. 

My motivation for pointing all of this out is,
  • The Southeastern third of the United States is now very wet. If we get persistent, heavy spring rains, flooding that is even more serious than current levels is likely.
  • We are approaching tornado season. The strong thunderstorms that produce tornadoes can also cause flash flooding in areas that are already wet.
As weather science continues to improve, please take our forecasts and warnings seriously. 

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