Friday, April 10, 2020

Tornado Risk Forecast for Easter Weekend

Please make your friends and family aware of this forecast.
I believe the southern USA is in for a vicious tornado outbreak this weekend through noon Monday. In fact, this is the first time I've forecasted an "extreme" risk of tornadoes since I began using this system in January, 2019. Please allow me to break my forecast down. The words I use to describe the risk categories (there are four) are the words I believe meteorologists would use to describe the risk to a member of their family or a friend.
  • Extreme Risk.  The risk of a tornado at a given point is similar to the afternoon of April 26, 2011 and the tornadoes will be extremely fast-moving. The tornadoes in my high risk area will have a forward speed of 50 mph or faster. One model has a forward speed of 70 mph. That means if it takes meteorologists 5 minutes to get a warning out, the tornado will have moved five to six miles, meaning people will have to react instantly in order to be safe. I would expect to use these category (I didn't use it at all last year) once or twice a year. The requirement for advance preparation and warning monitoring goes without saying. 
  • High Risk. A high-end tornado event. In this case, it is vital to know that this area will also have fast-moving storms but not to the extent of the extreme risk. The requirement for advance preparation and warning monitoring goes without saying. 
  • Enhanced Risk. A risk category that requires media monitoring throughout the valid time of the forecast.
  • Marginal Risk. Tornadoes will occur only if a number of ingredients come together. Monitor for a tornado watch. If one is issued, then begin monitoring the media. 
Tornadoes are likely in the overnight hours. 

So, make sure your sheltering area is cleared out, put a couple of bottles of water in it (along with diapers, if necessary) and make sure you wear shoes when you shelter. 

Check batteries for your weather radio. Keep your computer and smartphone charged but take them off the smartphone when you hear thunder for the first time. I highly recommend my "tornado alarm." Instructions for setting up the alarm are here (and, they are very simple). 

Especially if you are in the high or extreme tornado risk areas, please prepare now

Of course, I will update this forecast Saturday (tomorrow).

[Posted 5:50pm Friday]


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