Thursday, February 28, 2019

Why I Am Not a Fan of Long Range Forecasts

Here is NOAA's temperature forecast for the meteorological winter (December through February) 2018-19.
And, here are the actual temperatures:
The forecast is almost exactly backward. Unfortunately, this is not rare.

In spite of nearly 50 years of trying to forecast seasonal weather, there is very little skill to long range forecasts. The atmosphere is too chaotic to reliability forecast beyond about two weeks.

Keep this in mind when Big Climate is telling you they can forecast the weather or climate 30 or 50 years in the future. Can't be done. 

Hat tip: Dr. Mika

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