Saturday: Heads Up Central Plains

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This morning, I posted a forecast for Saturday-Sunday-Monday and the expected geographic location of severe thunderstorms with tornado potential.

Based on data from this evening's initial computer models, I have to revise the Saturday forecast. Below is a rough forecast of radar Saturday afternoon and evening. Please don't focus too much on exact locations. The point is that the Gulf moisture will be in place and the low pressure system in the upper atmosphere looks like it will take a more southern path than earlier forecasts indicated.
Radar forecast for 4pm Saturday CDT.

Forecast for 7pm Saturday.

Forecast for 10pm Saturday. Knowing how this model works, this is a forecast of extraordinarily intense thunderstorms.

Please don't be mislead by the nearly non-existent tornado season in this region so far in 2013. I urge that residents of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle monitor the weather on Saturday for possible watches and warnings. The earlier forecasts for Sunday and Monday still look reasonably correct.

I'll be updating this situation on the blog as time progresses. I also tweet @usweatherexpert.

Comments

  1. AnonymousMay 16, 2013 at 10:35 PM

    Mike, I'm on my phone without model links. Which model is this?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mike SmithMay 16, 2013 at 10:40 PM

    This is the NAM 4km NEST from 00Z this evening. I did a complete analysis/forecast before I did this posting and the model and I are in nearly complete agreement.

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousMay 16, 2013 at 10:53 PM

    Ok, it's good to know which model is informing your thinking. As I look things over in detail this weekend it helps me filter my thoughts and not chase a rabbit trail, if I know where several people I respect see things and what is informing their thoughts. Thank you, Mike.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Species: Cheekius_GeekusMay 17, 2013 at 12:50 PM

    Am I wrong in thinking that a lot hinges on the exact location of the Bulk Shear? Looks a little spotty. I think I would start my day sitting in North Platte, NE.

    ReplyDelete

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