Posting for Weather Geeks

(Non-weather geeks can skip this posting.)

The purple arrow above is the core of the jet stream as is moves into southwest Kansas. The left-front quadrant often assists with the development of thunderstorms. The wind shift line (red dashes) from this morning's thunderstorms in northeast Kansas has moved well to the south.

The air over Kansas is extremely unstable, a necessary condition for severe thunderstorms.
Values of 4,500 j. of instability are extraordinarily high. For comparison, 2,000 is high in these cases.

This is a forecast from a high-resolution model showing the forecast radar for 7pm CDT this evening. Any of these thunderstorms could be "severe" with large hail and damaging winds...and, possibly, a tornado. The forecast storm (do not take the locations literally) I have highlighted seems to be in the zone where tornadoes seem especially likely (the area I have outlined in red).

For non-weather geeks. If you live in or near the area outlined in red, please pay close attention to the weather after about 2:30pm today and be prepared to take shelter if stormy conditions approach your location. 

Special note to boaters: You will want to be off the lake and sheltered well before any storms arrive.


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