Monday, December 5, 2016

Sometimes It is What I Do NOT Post...

...that is important. I want to answer the question this morning.

Two weeks ago, the meteorological computer models were projecting a record cold (below zero in many areas) spell for the middle to latter part of this week. While it will be colder in most parts of the U.S. by the end of the week, you never saw those inaccurate forecasts on this blog even though they showed up on Drudge and in many other places.

Now, another one of these silly (20° below zero!!!!) forecasts is showing up and you will not see it here, either.

I (the proprietor of this blog) believe in responsible weather forecasting -- not sensationalism just to generate views. So, you don't see forecasts I don't personally believe.

ADDITION: the 18Z run came in a while ago. This is the same model forecasting the same thing at the same time. At left, the 18Z run yesterday. At right, the 18Z run today! THIS is why I don't post these things!

6 comments:

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  2. Current forecast from NWS Denver for CO Zone 30 - 32:

    WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS 14 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO.

    NWS Grand Junction has these lows for some of the traditionally cold mountain valleys (e.g. Gunnison).

    Although I didn't see the links you question, there is some fact to the -20F forecasts. At least from NWS.

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  3. I saw some of those "forecasts." At least in some cases, it appeared the reporter confused "degrees below normal" with actual temperatures. Further, I am still convinced that "naming" storms (either hurricanes or winter systems) compounds and confounds reporting, as the anthropomorphising invites imputation of extremes.

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  4. Correct, Brian. However, there is a huge difference between the valley cold around GJT and the forecasts to which I was referring which centered the cold around the Ohio Valley.

    Citizen: Yes, you are correct. They confused 40 below normal with -40°F. Regardless, the posting of some of this is downright irresponsible so I wanted to address the issue.

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  5. Mike...Is what the Washington Post saying true? Is that next week part of the polar vortex or just a misuse of the term?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/07/polar-vortex-unleashed-severe-cold-snap-likely-in-u-s-next-week/?utm_term=.61583a172e02

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  6. Todd, there is a polar vortex even in summer. Its location can affect the direction of cold air masses and their intensity but it, by itself, is no big deal.

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