Monday, December 5, 2016

A GREAT Global Warming Thought Experiment

While his comments are sometimes really "out there," I enjoy reading Scott Adams' blog. Earlier today, he wrote about global warming. The title of the piece?

He makes some very good points that I know frustrate many.

If you have been involved in any climate change debates online or in person, you know they always take the following trajectory: Climate science believers state that all the evidence, and 98% of scientists, are on the same side. Then skeptics provide links to credible-sounding articles that say the science is bunk, and why. How the heck can you – a non-expert – judge who is right?
You probably are not a scientist, and that means you can’t independently evaluate any of the climate science claims. You didn’t do the data collection or the experiments yourself. You could try to assess the credibility of the scientists using your common sense and experience, but let’s face it – you aren’t good at that. So what do you do?
As long-time readers of this blog know, I am certain humans affect the climate. But, I am also not nearly sold on the scientific case for catastrophic global warming. It is far too weak to base spending (literally) trillions of dollars. I am also an atmospheric scientist, so I'm sure Mr. Adams would say, with reason, "You are just one of the many scientific voices on the subject," and he would be right.

So, let me try to persuade him of my belief there is no immediate catastrophic global warming crisis. I propose to do so by going outside of scientific channels.

Also, today, I ran across this in a travel piece:
You are probably asking, "What in the world does this have to do with global warming?"

This a brand new resort in a United Nations biosphere area. Question: If global warming and the (long overdue) increase in the rate of sea level rise it is supposed to cause in the Maldives -- which is supposed be among the first and most severely affected locations -- why would anyone construct a new resort there?!

In fact, there is a new construction boom in the Maldives. What does that tell us?

A new Four Seasons hotel in a remote, UN-protected, area is a huge, huge investment. Why would  these companies, all of which are for-profit, be building big new hotels if they thought sea level rise was going to accelerate? For that matter, why would they do it if they thought storms were getting worse? Between the two, the probability their investment would be wiped out would be too high. 

What this tells us is that the "smart money," outside of climate science, doesn't think global warming is a big deal. And, that they can construct numerous resorts and hotels at "ground zero" location for climate changes' worst effects. 

I rest my case. 

2 comments:

  1. Apropos of Adams thoughtful words are President Dwight Eisenhower’s deeply considered words in his farewell address to the nation on January 17,1961. Bear in mind that Eisenhower, between his monumental roles as Army general and U. S. president, was president of Columbia University. His views on the topic were from the “inside”:

    “Akin to, and largely responsible for the sweeping changes in our industrial-military posture, has been the technological revolution during recent decades.

    “In this revolution, research has become central, it also becomes more formalized, complex, and costly. A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government.

    “Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers.

    “The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is gravely to be regarded.

    “Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”

    Public policy on “climate change” has “become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”

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  2. Why not? The resorts will make bucket-loads of money in the short term selling vacations to people who want to see the Maldives before they're gone, and then when climate change destroys the investment... insurance.

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