I've been debating responding to this post ever since I saw it early yesterday morning. My original intention was to make a blog post and direct my response there. I may still do that...
However, why should I give any credence to Mr. Bastardi's winter weather forecast when his original forecast was incorrect? (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/40340/accuweathercom-winter-forecast-1.asp)
The south has been very cold, snow fall across a large portion of the south is well above normal, with prospects for more snow in the coming days (and probably weeks) as we are locked into a strongly negative AO and positive PNA (as is reflected in the latest forecast graphics from Mr. Bastardi).
You rail about climate scientists making long range forecasts and tout the fact that we struggle with the short-term. (Several recent posts illustrate that fact, especially the post sparking our previous discussion and one from earlier today (22 January). So why now are you advocating someone's seasonal forecast? Especially when his original forecast was incorrect.
This is a fair comment and I welcome it. I'll answer in two parts..
BASTARDI. I have seen some rather amazing forecasts from Joe verify, even some that were completely different than the NWS's. You are correct that his initial 2010-11 winter forecast was way off. While I believe Joe is a better than average long range forecaster, I do not believe that he has a great deal of "skill" as defined in meteorology.
CLIMATE FORECASTS. I have not seen Joe attempt to make forecasts more than six months out. As mentioned above, there isn't a great deal of skill there. Logically, if we cannot make consistent forecasts at six months, there is no reason to believe we can do so at 60 years.
But, go back to the 2004 IPCC report. They issued a forecast out to 2100 with 95% error bars. Much of the time since that report was issued, temperatures are outside the confidence interval on the low side.
But, if we look at the high-profile climate forecasts (west side of Manhattan under water by 2000, no more snow for UK, etc., etc.), they have been spectacular failures.
To me, this is sufficient to nullify the hypothesis that we can forecast the climate decades in advance.
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding. Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map. In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state. Here is the updated (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state. The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area. While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge). Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert. Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding. Here is a map of current watc
[There is an updated version of this forecast. Scroll up.] This tornado outbreak has the potential for violent, long-tracked tornadoes at night. It is a recipe for a terrible disaster in terms of human life if precautions are not taken. Here are the color codes: Red hatched: High risk of strong tornadoes. Yellow hatched: Enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. Brown: Significant risk of tornadoes. The northern area of Iowa-Illinois-Missouri will see tornado-producing thunderstorms beginning tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon and continuing into Tuesday night. The southern area, from St. Louis across the Ozarks and into northeast Texas, may not develop until evening and then continue well into the night. Nighttime tornadoes are 2.5 times more deadly than tornadoes during the day. Addition, 7:30pm. The Texas Tech model shows thunderstorms developing over the Flint Hills and in Oklahoma 7-8pm. Those are already supercells in Kansas and the red lines in both areas are local rotation in the storm
Mike,
ReplyDeleteI've been debating responding to this post ever since I saw it early yesterday morning. My original intention was to make a blog post and direct my response there. I may still do that...
However, why should I give any credence to Mr. Bastardi's winter weather forecast when his original forecast was incorrect? (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/40340/accuweathercom-winter-forecast-1.asp)
The south has been very cold, snow fall across a large portion of the south is well above normal, with prospects for more snow in the coming days (and probably weeks) as we are locked into a strongly negative AO and positive PNA (as is reflected in the latest forecast graphics from Mr. Bastardi).
You rail about climate scientists making long range forecasts and tout the fact that we struggle with the short-term. (Several recent posts illustrate that fact, especially the post sparking our previous discussion and one from earlier today (22 January). So why now are you advocating someone's seasonal forecast? Especially when his original forecast was incorrect.
Patrick,
ReplyDeleteThis is a fair comment and I welcome it. I'll answer in two parts..
BASTARDI. I have seen some rather amazing forecasts from Joe verify, even some that were completely different than the NWS's. You are correct that his initial 2010-11 winter forecast was way off. While I believe Joe is a better than average long range forecaster, I do not believe that he has a great deal of "skill" as defined in meteorology.
CLIMATE FORECASTS. I have not seen Joe attempt to make forecasts more than six months out. As mentioned above, there isn't a great deal of skill there. Logically, if we cannot make consistent forecasts at six months, there is no reason to believe we can do so at 60 years.
But, go back to the 2004 IPCC report. They issued a forecast out to 2100 with 95% error bars. Much of the time since that report was issued, temperatures are outside the confidence interval on the low side.
But, if we look at the high-profile climate forecasts (west side of Manhattan under water by 2000, no more snow for UK, etc., etc.), they have been spectacular failures.
To me, this is sufficient to nullify the hypothesis that we can forecast the climate decades in advance.
Mike