Sunday, October 4, 2020

When It Comes to Global Warming Nonsense, It is Difficult to Top This...

Susan Shaw is a professor of "women, gender and sexualities studies" at Oregon State University which (sarcasm on) makes her an expert in global warming science (sarcasm off). You can read more about her assertions here

Of course, climate does not ignite fires. One of this year's worst fires was a result of fireworks set off at a "gender reveal party." That fire killed a firefighter. And, it wasn't the first time a party has set off a major fire. I hardly think one can blame 'white Christians' for those.

It isn't just Professor Shaw who is misguided on this issue: I see this evening's 60 Minutes is going to have an interview with Dr. James Hansen hyping, "...droughts in the West, superstorms in the East.." which is, no doubt, timed to assist candidates like AOC who are extremists on the global warming issue. CBS has been running this same story for about twenty years. 

So whether it is Professor Shaw or Dr. Hansen, let's review the facts pertaining to "drought in the West and hurricanes (which is what Sandy was; "superstorm" is hype) in the East."

Drought 

Here is the latest Palmer Drought Index map. It is a peer-reviewed, generally accepted measure of drought at a given time. 


Now, let's go back to a period -- decades before human-caused global warming was an issue -- using exactly the same metric.

The data from July, 1934, depicts a drought over the United States -- including in the West -- that is far, far worse that what we are experiencing today. The point is that global warming may have a worsting effect on the current drought in the West but that global warming is not needed to produce the current level, or an even worse level, of drought. We simply do not know the extent to which humanity is, or is not, affecting the current drought. 

Hurricanes
Again, we turn to peer-reviewed, generally accepted techniques to see whether global warming has had any significant effect on the number or intensity of hurricanes.

The first graph is the frequency of all hurricanes (top line) and major hurricanes (bottom line) worldwide. The graph begins in 1970 because that is the first time we had adequate satellite coverage of the oceans. 
There is no significant trend in either. 

There is another peer-reviewed metric pertaining to hurricanes. 
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is a metric that combines hurricane and tropical storm frequency and strength. The top line is global, the bottom line is northern hemisphere. Again, there is no significant trend in either direction.

Global Temperatures
Here is the latest plot of global temperatures. It uses the HadCRUT metric which is used by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC), which is considered the gold standard of global warming science. The graph covers 1970 to 2020; it matches the period of time of the hurricane graphs above.
Clearly, temperatures have warmed. Some (not fully known) portion of the warming was caused by humans and some was natural. But that isn't my main point. My point is this: if hurricanes were going to be made drastically worse by global warming, it would be showing up by the statistics by now. It doesn't.

Sandy seemed so unusual because we had been a 50-year lull in hurricanes striking the Middle Atlantic coast. 

As to drought, the same thing is true: As of the most recent IPCC report on the subject explains, there is no trend, either increase or decrease, in the amount or severity of drought ("low confidence in [any] global trend in drought"). You can read it for yourself at the top of the page, here. In fact, the earth continues to produce record crop yields, something that would not be possible if droughts had increased over the last half-century. In fact, famine was a much bigger problem in the 1960s-70s when temperatures were colder. 

Finally, I wish to directly address Professor Shaw's absurd comments about Christianity. The fact is that Christians created modern science and the scientific method which is responsible for the tremendous progress made by mankind. Until COVID, the earth was enjoying the lowest level of extreme poverty in the history of humanity. That would never have been possible without the innovations made with a basis in science.

It may be that Professor Shaw, like so many, gets her ideas of Christianity from the bigoted views of popular media.
In case there are readers who are new to this blog: We absolutely should move to next-generation nuclear, geo-thermal or hydroelectric power for many reasons (wind and solar are bad strategies) as we have explained many times. 

If you have friends or family that are influenced by remarks such as Professor Shaw's or by opinions disguised as news such as 60 Minutes please forward this blog piece. The science does not justify the gloom and doom of so many.

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