Monday, October 5, 2020

Now HURRICANE Delta is Rapidly Increasing in Intensity

UPDATED at 6:42pm:


This is a dangerous situation. Cancun may experience a Cat 3 or Cat 4 hurricane based on the current rate of intensification and the HWRF specialized hurricane model. Please prepare for the storm as quickly as possible. 

---- Original Posting ----

 I expect Delta to strengthen to hurricane force tonight. I also expect it to achieve major hurricane status (winds 120 mph or stronger) before it makes landfall. It will likely have a serious storm surge threat, as well. 

                                            Delta at 3:45pm CDT

Current wind speed is 70 mph and lowest pressure is 983 millibars. This is a major drop since this morning (see below).

Here is the National Hurricane Center's latest forecast. Red = hurricane warnings. M = major hurricane.

Please note a hurricane warning is in effect for Cancun and Cozumel. 

Heavy rains are likely along Delta's path. Flooding will result in the Southeast.

Please keep in mind:


It is time to make precautions on the Louisiana coast. Safety Recommendations With COVID Factored In:

  • Make a hotel/motel reservation well inland. There is no point to getting on the road and finding everything already sold out. Be sure and cancel if you do not need the room. In this case, I would go west (e.g., Lake Charles, Beaumont) to stay away from both winds and flooding. 
  • Make provisions for infirm friends/relatives well in advance. 
  • Get prescriptions filled before you evacuate. 
  • Put an app like AccuWeather's on your smartphone. It will keep track of your location and automatically provide the latest emergency warnings. 
  • Your "Go-Kit" should include at least two masks per person, soap, hand sanitizers, disinfectant wipes and, if available, disinfectant spray. 
  • Fill your car with fuel. I still recommend a road atlas or map in addition to whatever navigation system you might have. 
  • Power failures are likely. If you have a generator, fill it with fuel. If you wish to purchase a portable generator, do not put it in the garage, indoors, or anywhere near an air intake. Carbon monoxide is a danger. Nearly half of the fatalities from Hurricane Laura were from carbon monoxide after the storm. 
  • Consider taking your passport or putting it in your safe deposit box. If the worst happens, you'll need it to prove identity for disaster documents. It will be difficult to recover in a ruined home.
  • Take at least two large bottles of water for each family member along with protein bars or other easy-to-carry food. 
  • If you decide to stay home, make sure you have a working fire extinguisher, non-electric can opener, and a first aid kit. 
As always, I promise there will be no hyping of the storms. 

If you wish to learn more about how hurricane warnings are made, go here

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