Wednesday, June 17, 2015

"Way Overhyped"

Geez. Water rescues occurring in multiple Texas cities in the last hour and now as far north as Ardmore, Oklahoma. Yet Bill is "overhyped."

Here's the problem. This is a computer model forecast of rain in north Texas. The difference between
nine inches and 0.5 inches is 12 miles! While I realize the definition of important weather is whatever a person experiences it is asking a lot to expect forecasts to be accurate down to a single mile.

You know, someone should write a book on how we warn of tropical storms and other dangerous storms!

1 comment:

  1. Here in OKC TV stations and the NWS have done a good job of explaining the tight gradient nature of this tropical system. They've gone out of their way to mention that some places will see no precip and others, only a few miles away, might experience life-threatening flooding. Yet some people hear only what they want to hear. They key in on "9 inches or "tornadoes" and mentally discard other specific details about the location and timing. This quirk of human cognition isn't lost on broadcasters, however. Often they will drop the word "severe" into teases and tosses between anchors and the weather talent just to get the buzz going. We could be in a drought with no rain in the forecast yet the tease will still read "It's been a calm week but are severe storms on the horizon? Joe's in next to let us know".


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