Thursday, June 14, 2012

Severe Weather Update

Bright red = tornado warning. Here are the severe thunderstorm watches (maroon) and warnings (amber). The deep red colors are flash flood warnings as of 7:34pm.

What will happen next?

The predictive radar model has been working well. Here is the 7pm actual radar:

Now, here is the predicted radar for 7pm:

This is a pretty good model performance.

So, let's update the actual radar as of 7:24pm:

And, here is the forecast radar as of 11pm CDT. Over time, damaging winds in addition to the large hail will become a major threat.


  1. Damn, that predictive radar's good!

  2. When there is reasonable upper-level forcing, it works very well.


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