Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Ohio Valley Heavy Rain Threat Developing?

This is the National Weather Service's forecast of rainfall amounts for the next five days (ending 6pm CST Sunday, click to enlarge). There are widespread 2 to 3 inch amounts in the lower Ohio River Valley. This rain would generally be welcome.

However, the 15-day rainfall amounts from each of the last three model runs and the European model indicate heavy rains the same region next week.

The dark blue is 4 to 5.9 inches and the light blue is 6 to 8 inches. There is also an area of 6 inches that touches the New Jersey coast.

Normally, I wouldn't mention this -- the models usually don't have skill out two weeks. But, since both of the primary models have been very consistent, I'm bringing this to your attention.

Even with the heavy snows, the flood threat is not terribly high, at least at this point. Below is a

map of percent of normal rainfall over the region the last 60 days. Most of the Ohio Valley has had 50% or less of normal rainfall.

Nevertheless, the rain situation the next two weeks is worth keeping an eye on.

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