Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Pro Tip: Weather Forecasting Without Models

-- For Meteorologists --

There are some tweets this afternoon that have said, "the accumulating snow is ending for Wichita" or words to that effect. And, the radar was fairly clear to the west southwest. 
Radar at 12:10p
But, pattern recognition, an important forecasting tool independent of the models, indicates otherwise. In this type of storm, a final snow band usually forms along the 500mb trough line. Here is the trough line at 1pm.

In addition, the infrared satellite shows multi-layered clouds (capable of producing accumulating snow) west to the trough line. 
As long as multi-layered clouds are present, accumulating snow (given cold enough surface temperatures) is possible. 

In this part of the county, the snow band associated with the trough line will often produce 1/2" to 1 inch of additional snow. 

And, sure enough, as of 1:40pm CST, snow is redeveloping on radar to the west of Wichita (compare this image to the one at the top). 

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