Sunday, September 4, 2016

Global Warming: "New York Times" Beclowns Itself Again

Apparently, the NYT doesn't realize its advocacy masquerading as journalism can be independently checked. Friday, in what has become an endless stream articles hyping global warming, they wrote:

Kerry A. Emanuel, a climate scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said the evidence suggested climate change would cause the strongest storms to grow even stronger, and to be more frequent. 

We have heard this from Kerry almost constantly since 2005 (the year of Katrina). It is very easy to prove Dr. Emanuel's fearmongering has not worked out as he predicted.
Dr. Ryan Maue, click to enlarge
The above graphic is a depiction of the worldwide tropical Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index which combines hurricane strength and number of storms into a single metric. If Dr. Emanuel's hypothesis is correct, the ACE index would have risen, or at least stayed the same, since 2005 (circled). Instead, it has gone down to very low levels, meaning hurricanes are less bad worldwide.

The article also plays games with the ongoing hurricane drought in the United States. No serious scientist contends that Hurricane Sandy had anywhere near Category 3 or stronger winds at landfall in the United States. So, yes, the U.S. continues in a record "drought" of "major" hurricanes (Cat. 3 or stronger). The drought is approaching 11 years in duration. The previous record was 6 years from 1900 to 1906. Our records reach back 150 years.

So, as of this time, there is zero evidence that hurricanes are getting worse. 

By the way, that is not just my opinion, it is also the opinion of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The position that hurricanes are not getting worse is also affirmed and explained by Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. in Disasters and Climate Change published earlier this summer.

UPDATE: Thank you to commenter Just A Citizen for pointing out that Ryan had updated the ACE measurement graphic.
As you can see, there has been a considerable uptick. If it rises and continues to rise over a period of years (just like it  went down after Katrina for 8 years) then Kerry's hypothesis will be on firmer ground. However, my central point remains true: Kerry has forecast a rise in hurricanes hurricanes since 2005 and values have stayed below that value ever since.

I appreciate any time a commenter brings new information to my attention!

3 comments:

  1. The graph in this post was updated Sept. 30, 2014. (Almost 2 years ago.)

    Dr. Maue's latest update is Aug.31, 2016 (5 days ago.)

    Quite a difference.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Here is the link:
    http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks for the update. I agree with your central point.

    ReplyDelete

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