Wednesday, March 4, 2015

15-Day Rainfall Outlook

Dr. Ryan Maue
This time of year, there is intense interest in the Farm Belt with regard to soil moisture for the winter wheat crop and for spring planting (cotton, corn, soybeans, etc.). This is the ECMWF Ensemble forecast of precipitation for the next 15 days.

Too much rain is an issue in the Delta soybean area and in the cotton belt.

Too little rain is an issue in scattered locations in the winter wheat belt. The crop, however, is in pretty good shape because the moisture, while lighter than normal, has often come in the form of snow which has protected the crop from extreme cold and given the gradual moisture which is optimal.

It is my opinion that more precipitation will fall in Kansas and Nebraska than snow here. I think this forecast should be pushed northwest about 150 miles. So, moisture-wise, the winter wheat's short term prospects are fine.

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