Monday, August 31, 2015
Sunday, August 30, 2015
WeatherData, Inc. (now AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions), by 10am on the 29th, had informed its clients that the levees had breached. As I write in Warnings, I boarded a business flight late the morning of the 29th and, when I reached my hotel in Charlotte, I turned on the television and expected to see non-stop coverage of the rising waters. I was flabbergasted that, even on "Nightline" at 11:30pm, there was no realization that things were getting worse rather than better. People were literally drowning due to the rising water yet no one outside New Orleans (and our clients) seemed to know about it.
On the 30th, the networks finally reported that New Orleans had flooded but got just about everything else wrong.
If you would like to learn about what went wrong with the news coverage, in addition to my book, Warnings, you can click here, here and here. The last link is to an article about the utter political confusion that, to be fair, made covering the aftermath of Katrina even more difficult.
Saturday, August 29, 2015
Friday, August 28, 2015
"They are suspending the game due to heavy rain and a big clap of thunder anticipating some lightning." was stated a moment ago by an announcer for the Kansas City Chiefs pre-season game.
AccuWeather forecasts Erika to move up near the west coast of Florida. We continue to forecast it will be of tropical storm strength when it does.
Thursday, August 27, 2015
One of the central tenets of the scientific method is that others must be able to reproduce an experiment and achieve the same results. For too many years, no one was performing this vital task.
Now Science has reported on the results of the Reproducibility Project. What they learned was sobering: 64% of the peer-reviewed results could not be reproduced even when working the authors of the original studies! The Project's results are here.
I can hardly imagine what the statistics would be for climate 'science.'
Mr. Brown has written a brief essay in Politico attempting to exonerate himself and his agency for their terrible performance during Katrina.
I wrote on this very topic a couple of days ago. Yes, Mayor Nagin's decision to delay a mandatory evacuation and the designation of the Superdome were terrible decisions that cost many lives.
But, it wasn't Mayor Nagin that sent the rescuers to Atlanta to take classes on sexual harassment and the "history of FEMA" while people were perishing as the waters rose. It wasn't Gov. Blanco that insisted on having a steak dinner at high-end restaurant in Baton Rouge -- and insisting on not being interrupted during the meal -- while confused first responders were awaiting deployment orders. All of this, and more, is documented in my book, Warnings.
So, yes, I agree that Michael Brown does not bear all of the blame for the Katrina catastrophe. That said, it would be much more helpful to have him publish suggested ways to improve FEMA's perpetually poor responses to major hurricanes rather than writing a "poor me" article.
Question: If I were in Florida's east coast what would I do to prepare for Erika? The only thing I would do at this point is get any prescription drugs refilled if you are low. On the outside chance this storm strengthens more than we think, and since the weekend is approaching, you might want to consider getting them refilled. Otherwise, I don't recommend any other special precautions at this point.
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
|click to enlarge|
Enjoying my vacation reads. Warnings is exceptional. Love the facts, autobiography, and insight.
There are several chapters covering Katrina, hurricane forecasting and disaster response that are exceptionally timely with that storms' 10th anniversary and Erika threatening the Southeast.
You can order a copy of this 5-Star rated book here.
While we are on the subject of tropical Florida weather, may I suggest reading this excellent posting from Dr. John Scala on the double threat created by gradually increasing sea levels combined with the hurricane drought.
Tuesday, August 25, 2015
|--- USA Today|
Why is it the people always lecturing us about global warming are the people with gargantuan carbon footprints?
I'll believe global warming is a crisis when the people telling me its a crisis start acting like its a crisis. --Glenn Reynolds
Monday, August 24, 2015
Due to the slow response to the hurricane, New Orleans's top emergency management official called the effort a "national disgrace" and questioned when reinforcements would actually reach the increasingly desperate city.
What went so horribly wrong? How did more than 1,800 people lose their lives when the storm was superbly forecast? Why was the rescue a "national disgrace"?
I spent time researching this for Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather. The answers will likely shock you. There were two things that went horribly wrong:
- The first was New Orleans' Mayor Ray Nagin's complete failure to grasp the gravity of the situation or to order 1) a mandatory evacuation before Sunday midday and 2) his failure to order the implementation of the southeast Louisiana disaster plan which would have activated the school buses so those without other transportation could be evacuated.
- FEMA proactively recruited expert rescuers from around then nation. Then it sent them to Atlanta to take seminars in sexual harassment and the "history of FEMA" while people were drowning and dying in New Orleans!!
The second is to please evacuate if an evacuation is ordered. Yes, it is expensive and terribly inconvenient but a house can be rebuilt.
AccuWeather has a retrospective on Katrina here.
Sunday, August 23, 2015
Saturday, August 22, 2015
Please keep an eye on the weather if thunderstorms approach.
I heard from a friend in Hawaii that the local media is barely mentioning the threat -- which is typical ("don't scare the tourists"). So, I'll continue to periodically update on the threat, if any, posed by Kilo.
Friday, August 21, 2015
Saturday, widespread severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes will develop in the Upper Midwest. Fifteen percent (yellow) is the significant threshold. Hatching is where the most violent weather may occur.
Tuesday - Thursday Next Week
Now Tropical Storm, likely Hurricane Kilo will threaten the Hawaiian Islands with the highest risk to Kauai and Niihau. Major hurricanes in Hawaii are rare but, when they occur, they approach from the south or southwest. AccuWeather has more.
Danny is now a major -- category 3 -- hurricane with 115 mph winds.
Harry was a genuinely nice guy as well as a talented meteorologist. He will be greatly missed.
Thursday, August 20, 2015
There is a serious risk of a hurricane near or striking Hawaii in roughly five days. Please keep an eye on the weather if you live in the Islands or plan to travel there. Since coverage of Hawaii weather is often spotty on the mainland, I'll periodically update on the blog.
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
To all of my friends, professional meteorologists (many of my friends are) and anyone else who loves severe weather, forecasting, etc: This is a MAGNIFICENT book by Mike Smith! If it we're a restaurant it would receive 4-STARS -- that's how good this book is. The chapters on Katrina alone are worth the low purchase price!!
While I do not know how long it will last, Amazon has been running a sale on the hardcover version of the book lately. For hardcover, click here. For the Kindle version, click here.
For Barnes & Noble hardcover, click here. For B&N Nook, click here.
Or, go to your local bookstore!
I did mention Danny when it was named and mentioned it would likely become a hurricane. That is plenty considering it will be more than a week before the storm could reach the U.S. -- and that is the unlikely path. There is no reason to get excited at this point.
For others, the hype machine is going full blast:
Always dependable (for hype) The Weather Channel:
As I was working on this post, the Capital Weather Gang commented on this same topic:
They had praise for AccuWeather:
So, if you want balanced hurricane coverage throughout Danny's life, I highly recommend AccuWeather. Of course, if it looks like it will become a factor for you USA, I'll cover it here, as well.
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
|George Soros helping fan the global warming fire in 2009.|
Here is a portion of Method Communications' web page which will give you pretty good idea of what they do. Their goal? Not to improve science. It is to fan the flames of global warming hysteria. And, far too many reporters (who tend to skew liberal, like Mr. Soros and Mr. Gore) will fall for it.
I call these people Big Climate for a reason: Companies like Method don't work cheap. By far, the big money is on the pro-catastrophic global warming side. As reported above, Mr. Soros gives billions. But, don't worry, he'll get it back with artificially cheap investments later.