This is a tiny part of the major damage from a violent tornado(es) that began around 12:55pm this afternoon in the south part of the Green Bay metro area. Appleton was hard hit with major damage and with injuries, the extent of which are unknown at this time.  The problem: At 11:30am the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center forecast zero  chance of strong tornadoes anywhere in the U.S. and just a tiny (2%) chance of tornadoes of any intensity. Because of the events in Wisconsin, they were forced to rush out (17 minutes after the tornado began) a product calling for "strong" tornadoes -- that the public doesn't even see.  I believe the tornado will be rated at least EF-3 intensity.  The local Green Bay NWS office did an adequate job with this fast-developing situation, especially since the guidance would not have indicated to them there was any kind of meaningful tornado risk. From radar, the first significant indication of a tornado was at 11:56. Their ...

As forecast, this week will be the hottest of summer -- so far -- over a large part of the nation from the Rockies, east. And, while Mississippi and Georgia will be well above normal, the worst of it is forecast to be the Upper Midwest. In some areas, the temperatures will be more than 15° hotter than normal.  Europe is extremely hot (see below). So, what did Germany do Friday? Shut down its remaining nuclear power plants!  The plants were working fine, it was to appease the global warming zealots who wish to stop pollution-free nuclear energy. I don't get it, either. They now have an energy shortage.  Starting yesterday, the #1 (in accuracy) meteorological computer model in the world -- the ECMWF -- has been late or not run at all (it is scheduled every 6 hours). They report they have "unstable" electricity. Great Britain has its police going door to door tearing out air conditioners . As you can see from the map, England is affected by the heat wave. But, before we brag...

The title of this essay is from a press release that indirectly "blames the victim." The author is Sedgwick County Emergency Management regarding a fatal tornado that occurred just north of Wichita at 1:14 this morning. The tornado was rated EF-2 ("strong") intensity. I believe the wording is unfortunate as discussed below.  Photo: KAKE.com. Note that with a basement, as little as seconds to dash down the stairs might have been sufficient to avoid injury.  In what has increasingly and unfortunately become the norm in tornado situations, no NWS tornado warning was issued even though: Rotation was depicted on radar Radar shows lofted debris People from outside the NWS are observing tornadoes and bringing them to NWS's and the public's attention.  I want to be clear: the tornado formed practically on top of the home and there was probably no way to have warned in time to help the man killed. But there is absolutely no reason a tornado warning could not have bee...

Here is a sampling of the feedback received pertaining to The Crisis in the National Weather Service .  From a reporter whose specialty is weather reporting. From a media meteorologist: From a retired meteorologist: From a currently active meteorologist: It's not confined to tornado warnings. Ever see the "carpet bomb" [severe thunderstorm warnings] that extend for 100s of miles along the length of a squall line? I recall one squall line that had solid SVR warnings from ORF to SAV (so not just a single WFO doing this). It was one of those low-topped, cool season events. The thing is gradient winds were already strong ahead of the squall line gusting to 35-45 mph, and you looked at actual obs when the squall line passed (there are a *lot* of [airport weather] sites these days for ground truth), and none were showing any increase in winds, gusty or otherwise. Is this really good forecast/warning science being applied? And I don't want to hear, "better safe than sor...

Posted late this afternoon on X. This is an addition to the essay below.  The National Weather Service is falling apart.    That is the only reasonable conclusion to be drawn by informed observation of its cumulative output during the past, highly active, 30 days of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.    Before proceeding, I want to stipulate that the Trump Administration’s handling of the cost cutting and downsizing of NOAA earlier this year was unhelpful. Yes, there was – and still is – fat in the NWS and NOAA. Cutting the deficit should be a high priority but those cuts need to be well thought out and well executed.    I also want to state there are exhausted people in the NWS who are suffering from vast amounts of overwork due to manpower shortages that existed before President Trump took office -- that were made worse by President Trump’s layoffs and then rehiring, in some cases,  people with little to no experience. The quality of work of bu...

This person was in such a hurry to criticize President Trump and Vice President Vance last week, she forgot to do some very basic research.  The only problem with her contentions? The U.S. Air Force has its own meteorological service and its own international forecast center and headquarters ( fyi, south of Omaha). The tornado warnings for Air Force bases are issued by the Air Force, not by the National Weather Service. 

I'm passing this severe thunderstorm watch along because of the forecast of 75 mph gusts and hail to tennis ball size. However, I do not see much of a tornado threat. Nevertheless, I could be wrong so keep an eye out if a strong thunderstorm moves into your area. 

NBC Chicago Undoubtedly Wednesday morning, you will be hearing about the tornado which struck the Kankakee, Illinois, area (south of Chicago) around 6:25pm. The damage is considerable. Chicago's WGN-TV says, "Kankakee County was severely damaged." There is report of two people killed by this tornado across the border in Lake Village, Indiana.  After the poorly warned tornadoes in southwest Michigan Friday, one would think the NWS would have made it a point to have its radars operating on optimum settings and then jump on any supercell thunderstorm with tornado characteristics. It appears this did not happen in Kankakee.  Below is what I posted on Twitter/X at 6:04pm. I do not use the term "tornado warning" as I believe it should be reserved for the National Weather Service (NWS) which is the official warning source.  Unfortunately, we did not hear from the NWS regarding the tornado threat for quite a while. While a severe thunderstorm warning for "softball ...

Addition at 11:15am Monday. This is the NWS's product which shows the total amount of ice. The white star in northern Mississippi is where the greatest amount of ice accumulated, 1.24" just east of Oxford, Mississippi. Compare to the map below which was ice effect's forecasts five days  in advance. Note: the ice from Virginia to New Jersey fell in the time interval beyond the range of the forecast below.  While this forecast wasn't perfect (West Virginia's ice would be forecast in later versions of the forecast), it provides lots of time for utilities to bring in crews from around the nation to speed the recovery.  -------- original post -------- This is the forecast on this blog Wednesday . It is from the NWS and where they expected the worst effects of the pending ice storm. This, via AccuWeather is where the power outages are the worst at this time (Sunday afternoon). At first glance they don't look the same because they are different base maps. But if you c...

Taken by the author in Olathe, looking northeast. When you see meteorologists and others criticizing the people of Kerr County, Texas for not immediately evacuating when the first flood warning was received at 1:14am on July 4, here is a perfect example of the NWS’s flood warning credibility problem via an "areal flood advisory" in Olathe, Kansas, this evening.    Above is a photo, taken from Olathe, of a thunderstorm cluster moving over Kansas City. As I was starting to crop the photo to post on the blog, I was flabbergasted to see a NWS “flood advisory” for Olathe come out.   Here is the primary problem: While it may rain,  it isn’t going to flood in Olathe by 10:30, the time the advisory expires. The sky is blue  (look at the top of the photo). Plus, it has been dry in this area recently.      Next, while the list of locations included includes Olathe, the polygon does not. Which are people supposed to trust? Olathe is noted. The blue dot was m...

As of Friday, 2:40pm, the number of confirmed dead is 121 with 170 missing. A horrible tragedy. --- original text, 8:45pm Tuesday --- Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, in the past half-hour, has released the actual number of missing: "At least 160!" Terrifying.  [original text below] I've received a deluge of comments from multiple sources, so I wish to answer those comments here. My report on the meteorology behind the flood is here .  National Disaster Review Board   You will find more information about the proposed National Disaster Review Board (NDRB) and how it will function here and here .    The State of Texas has suffered nearly 1,200 flood deaths – most in the Hill Country – during the past 55 years. That number is staggering. This past autumn, we lost 249 souls because of Hurricane Helene. In 2011, 161 were killed because of a single tornado in Joplin, MO. National Weather Service tornado warnings are much  less  accurate than 15 years ago. These, and...