9:25am Monday: The deadline for turning off the data has been pushed back to July 31. And, it has been confirmed that cybersecurity is the issue. This information came in just as I was getting ready to post the information below.  Last week I wrote about important weather satellite data being terminated just as we get into the thick of the 2025 hurricane season.  For those interested, a more detailed explanation is here . I have asked why the data stream could not be extended to September 30 (past the statical worst of hurricane season). If I get an answer, I will let you know. I am surmising the threat is judged to be sufficiently serious that it cannot wait.  Finally, this has nothing to do with DOGE or President Trump. While I do not wish to bring politics into this, it turns out the fateful decision that caused the loss of this data was made in 2015 -- when President Obama was in office. In fairness, there was probably no way that he could have anticipated that thing...

Bjorn Lomborg has a short, but essential, essay here . 

It will be a "happy day" if you click here . 

The National Weather Service's Issues With Tornado Warnings Have Reached the Crisis Level. Inadequate North Dakota Warning While the National Weather Service's  forecast for tornadoes in North Dakota yesterday was excellent, the tornado warning for the Bismarck area last night left a great deal to be desired. People could easily have been killed by the late tornado warning. The National Weather Service (NWS) radar showed both a hook echo by 10:19 (left) and strong rotation on the Doppler wind display (right) by 10:20. There is no question a tornado warning should have been issued by this time. The hook had characteristics of a debris ball -- making a tornado quite likely.  Unfortunately, the tornado warning wasn't issued for another six minutes.  Meanwhile, chasers and static cameras (see below) were capturing and transmitting images of the tornado. This static camera shows the tornado in the right side of the image. We don't know the exact starting time of the tornad...

The area in brown has a significant risk of a tornado later today. Please keep up on the weather in the region. 

The brown area, which includes Aberdeen in South Dakota, has a significant risk of tornadoes later today. Please keep up on the weather in this area. 

2024's Hurricane Helene For reasons that are not at all clear, the Department of Defense (DoD) has ceased providing microwave meteorological data from its polar orbiting satellites. I realize that is a mouthful, so an explanation is here.   This loss of data will be critical in a situation like Hurricane Otis which struck Acapulco with Cat 5 winds in 2023 and intensified after dark. We are losing half of the data -- the three NOAA polar orbiting satellites will still produce the microwave data.  The article at the link and other articles on this topic surmise that DoD has stopped the flow of that data for national security reasons but I cannot imagine the significance of microwave data pertaining to hurricanes-- this technology is not new. I suspect there is more going on such as a misguided attempt to decrease spending.  If I can get more information, I will let you know. Congress?

One onlooker said: 'It just goes to show you can have all the money in the world but you cant control the weather - although an Italian saying says a wet bride is a happy and lucky bride.' The article (above)  about the "freak" thunderstorm is here . I strongly suspect that a meteorologist could have alerted them in plenty of time to implement their Plan B (assuming they had one) or at least have avoided getting everyone and their expensive clothing soaked. Unfortunately, weather is the "all purpose excuse." As I am Italian (yes, really), Mr. Bezos can send a private jet for me. I'll charge only my standard fee. 😉  P.S. This incident reminds me of going out to eat in Baltimore about this time five years ago. A severe thunderstorm was approaching and, from the Doppler, I knew it would produce damaging winds. So, I told the hostess they had to get the people off the patio as soon as possible. Patio diners were sitting at glass tables with huge umbrellas i...

Earlier this afternoon, from Olathe, Kansas, I noticed an area where the rainfall was increasing rapidly as I looked north toward Lenexa. I enhanced the photo so the rain streaks would be more apparent. The area I focused on is between the arrows.  A few minutes later, the Kansas City Terminal Doppler Weather Radar -- which is specifically designed to detect downbursts -- depicted the downburst that formed over the Lenexa area of Johnson County. It moved east northeast into Jackson County, Missouri.  The "curly" symbol is for wind damage. Tree limbs were downed at the popular Ward Parkway Shopping Center.  The NWS WSR-88D measured wind gusts of 71 mph as it approached the shopping center. Typically, the radar overestimates wind speeds by about 10%. I imagine there was additional tree damage along the downburst's path. The electric utilities in the area have about 5,000 13,000 homes and businesses without power.  The NWS issued a timely and accurate severe thundersto...

Much like yesterday, there is a tornado risk for aa portion of the Upper Midwest.  The brown area is where the risk rises to a significant level. If you live in this area, please start monitoring the weather around 2pm. 

... is the appearance of MSM articles calling the current summer heat "the new normal" or similar phraseology.  These articles appear even though earlier decades (1930's and 1950's during the past 100 years) were hotter and drier. I have highlighted the heatwave intensity during the 1930's, below. Compare it to more recent times.  There is clearly no upward trend in heatwaves in the United States.  As to drought, the latest Palmer Drought Index map is below. The extreme drought in the Southwest continues unabated. Drought has worsened the past few weeks in the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies regions.  However, Mother Nature can produce far worse than current drought conditions without any assist from climate change. Below is the Palmer from July, 1934. The "Dust Bowl Drought" extended from nearly coast to coast. It was not merely confined to the Great Plains.  Yes, it has been a hot start to summer with many daily records sent. But, so far, 20...

Thunderstorms, currently in progress, are forecast to intensify leading to the likelihood (according to SPC) of tornadoes. In addition, 70 mph winds are forecast along with medium-sized hail. 

A 29 year-old man on his Florida honeymoon was killed Friday when struck by lightning. Usually, I wouldn't write about this but there is an important  lesson in lightning safety: you don't have to be rained on for lightning to strike. In fact, the thunderstorm doesn't have to be nearby. The gentleman was killed at the dot shown on the beach. It was 7 miles from the center of the storm and about 5 miles from any rain.  I have seen one unpublished study that says more people are killed just before and after it rains rather than during rain. During rain, people usually go to shelter. When it isn't raining, they often stay out in the open, which is dangerous.  Generally speaking, 15 miles from the storm is considered a safe distance. You can easily use that rule of thumb if you have a radar app. There are techniques that are more precise but they -- unfortunately -- are not widely used by weather science.  The slogan, When thunder roars go indoors , is a good one. If you...

I don’t know whose idea it was to put a transgender woman in a ridiculous, ill-fitting dress to do the weather Saturday. The dress looked like something an ice skater would wear in the Olympics. News Center Maine's (NBC) weathercast -- with a person named “Chartreuse Money” -- was a  terrible  idea for which apologies are required along with a promise never to do it again.    Why? Probably not for the reasons you might suspect.    Unlike, say, sports, people do not perish if they don’t take the baseball scores seriously. But, meteorologists' and weathercasters' #1 job is to provide life-saving, time-critical information that people -- too often -- don't immediately act upon. When warnings are not acted on, it can result in tragedy.   In nearby Upstate New York, j ust 13 hours after this weathercast,  three died (including six-year-old twins) when a tornado struck in the middle of the night.  There was an advance tornado warning issued for t...

 The forecast (posting below) turned out to be correct as more than 6 inches of rain fell overnight in small parts of northern Missouri and southern Iowa (red). New Mexico is also at risk of serious flooding.  24 hour rainfall ending at 9am CDT There is a moderate risk of more heavy rains in the region today so additional flash flooding is possible.  The red area in New Mexico has a high  risk of additional flash flooding today. Remember: whatever you do, don't try to cross flooded areas by foot or by car. 

Update 6:45pm. The flooding has already begun in southern New Mexico. Update 5:55pm. Serious generally flooding expected in New Mexico (blue) by the NWS the next five days, pretty much as described below: The flash flood forecast for tomorrow is below: --- original posting --- There are two areas that may be subject to flooding this week.  Rainfalls as much as 5-7 inches are forecast in the northern area -- especially in northern Iowa.   In the New Mexico - west Texas flood forecast area, the forecast rainfall in southern New Mexico is stunning. More than eight inches are forecast to fall in the mountains near Carizozo.  Of course, I will update on the flood risk tomorrow. 

A tornado watch has been issued until 10pm. Please note the forecast is for strong  tornadoes. I recommend monitoring the weather the rest of the day if you live in the tornado watch counties.  --- original posting (still valid) --- There is a significant risk of tornadoes in the northwest half of Minnesota. The risk of tornadoes will ramp around 4pm or after. 

Thought this comment was right on the money.......

There are two areas where significant flooding is forecast to occur over the next seven days. The map depicts where the NWS is forecasting flooding during the next seven days.  In parts of the Midwest, more than 5 inches of rain (orange) are forecast to fall during the next five days.

Minnesota and, especially, North Dakota were hard-hit by a derecho and tornadoes yesterday night -- with many of the storms occurring after 10pm. Three have been reported to have died.  The red dots are tornado locations. However, there will be many more locations added as the ground surveys continue. I have plotted only the reports of hail 2" in diameter or larger. The blue dots are wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger. The squares are reports of 75 mph or stronger. There were winds measured all the way up to 101 mph (below). Much stronger winds were recorded in eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota after 11pm. An animation of the radar showing the derecho and supercells is here.   Update 7pm. Some preliminary tornado ratings from last night: --- the forecast posted here at 8:11am Friday --- There is an enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes in the yellow, hatched area. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. There is also an enhanced risk of damaging thunders...

Dr. Cliff Mass of the University of Washington has the details. 

One of the coolest time-lapse videos of a tornado that I have seen in a long time is here . Screen captures  -- in order -- are below. The tornado's duration was more than 70 minutes.  Congratulations to Aaron for such great video and for sharing it with the world. 

You might have seen the latest claims that China is handing out degrees in "weather engineering" and that they have vast weather control capabilities.  I can't find any independent confirmation that China is handing out weather engineering degrees but I can say they do not have the vast weather modification abilities ("changing the land from desert to green") claimed.  Per the American Meteorological Society , here's what can -- given the right atmospheric conditions -- be done: One tool available for mitigating some of these weather impacts is planned weather modification through cloud seeding. In its most common form, specially formulated aerosols or very cold materials are dispersed in targeted locations within clouds to achieve precipitation enhancement, hail damage mitigation, fog clearing, and other intentional effects. In the above context, "aerosols" are tiny particles such as silver iodide crystals. And, while we have had some success in ...

Thunderstorm producing a cloudburst over Overland Park, Kansas, this evening as it was growing.  I noticed a bird circling the storm -- which is also good advice for pilots: Never penetrate a thunderstorm! Click READ MORE to see a closeup of the bird in flight. 

12:55pm College of DuPage Graphic The risk of tornadoes and wind gusts of 75 mph are ramping up in the area outlined in red. Several confirmed tornadoes have already occurred. I urge you to monitor the weather in this area the rest of the afternoon and into this evening.  Tornado watch issued.  In addition to tornadoes, wind gusts of 75 mph are possible. Please monitor the weather through this evening if you live in the yellow-shaded areas.  --- original post, forecast still valid --- The yellow area has an enhanced  risk of tornadoes this afternoon and evening. The brown area has a significant risk.  Please keep up on the weather -- especially if you live in the yellow area -- the rest of the day. 

It is imperative residents of the central Great Plains use the forecast to prepare for damaging winds and, perhaps, a tornado or two.  Tornado Risk The brown area has been moved south into northern Oklahoma and now includes Bartlesville, Ponca City, Enid, and Stillwater, in addition to the cities shown. In Missouri, it includes Joplin and Nevada.  Destructive Thunderstorm Winds Here is the color code: Pink and hatched: High  risk of destructive winds of 75 mph or stronger.  Red and hatched: Enhanced risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger.  Yellow: Significant risk of winds 60 mph or stronger.  If you live in the red or pink areas, I urge  you to prepare for the potential for power outages, some could last a day or more. Bring in lawn furniture or trampolines which could blow about and crash into other objects -- increasing damage. Put your car in the garage or carport.