Photo one: Photo two (~5 minutes later):

From Chris Martz:  Whatever the explanation, Mann has less of a platform and that is a good thing.  I support free speech and Mann is welcome to express his odious views. However, he should not be doing so as an administrator at a public university. 

Satellite image from just before noon shows strengthening Imelda east of Florida and weakening Humberto east of North Carolina. The map shows the hurricane warning for Bermuda with the storm forecast to have winds of nearly 100 mph by the time it passes over or very near the Island. The brown area is the current region of hurricane force winds and the amber is the area of tropical storm force winds.  The storms will bring life-threatening ("high") rip currents to the East Coast (red) today and tomorrow. 

"Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?" From the Wall Street Journal : " ST LOUIS -  Minutes after a mile-wide tornado struck this city on an otherwise beautiful day this spring...." Funny how a large EF-3 tornado can ruin a "beautiful day."  City of St. Louis photo The Wall Street Journal is based in New York City. FEMA is based in Washington, DC. Perhaps one of the problems with national responses to major disasters is that inside the Beltway and on the Island of Manhattan, these disasters seem far away...almost remote. When FEMA recently fixed an important bit of Florida infrastructure, another NYC-based organization called Pro Publica was upset that Trump fixed it after 2.5 years of neglect under President Biden .  So, it is not surprising the WSJ  and FEMA often miss the point: thousands of people have suffered from the Maui wildfires, Hurricane Helene, the Los Angeles wildfires, the St. Louis Tornado and others because a clerk in a large Wa...

At left, off the coast of Florida, is Tropical Storm Imelda and, farther right, is Hurricane Humberto. Fortunately, neither will make landfall in the United States and the only significant effects will be seriously dangerous rip currents along the Atlantic Coast.  Imelda's big right turn to the open Atlantic is expected this evening. 

Kathleen and I were thrilled last night to celebrate the 97th birthday of an extraordinary man: my uncle, Everett Mealman (who was wearing a 96 shirt because it was the last day he was 96).  In the 50's and 60's, Everett would have been called "a prince of a man." Extraordinarily kind while being a hugely successful husband, politician and entrepreneur , he is one in a million. Those who have read my book Warnings ,  know how important he has been in my life.  So, happy 97th Uncle Ev!!

We now officially have Tropical Storm Imelda, centered at the "I". To the east is Cat 4 Hurricane Humberto. The forecast below is unchanged. --- Original Posting From 10am The area where flooding rains may occur has lessened as confidence is now high that future Imelda will not cross the U.S. coast.  The hatched area below is where significant flooding potential exists through next weekend.  While the risk of inland flooding is somewhat less, there will still be extremely dangerous rip currents with this storm combined with the currents generated by off-short Cat. 5 Hurricane Humberto. Here is the newly updated forecast path and intensity. There is still a tropical storm watch in effect for parts of the Florida Atlantic Coast (yellow):

This is the latest track and intensity forecast from the NHC. They are more confident the center of the storm will not cross the coast. However, some of the models have brought heavy rain back into coastal South Carolina, so the threat of flooding still exists. There will also be strong rip currents with a serious drowning hazard. 

As of 4:50pm, the NHC forecast is little changed except that  rainfall amounts may be less than originally forecast (yay!).  I will have more this evening.  -- original post --  A tropical storm wind watch has been issued for parts of the Florida Atlantic Coat (yellow). Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the Bahamas (blue).  Currently, the storm is a tropical depression with 30 mph winds just north of Cuba. Later today or tonight, it should become Tropical Storm Imelda as it moves toward the north northwest. On Tuesday, it should become a ~75 mph hurricane.  The models today indicate Imeda's center is somewhat less likely to cross the coast. If accurate, the winds inland will be less than forecast yesterday as will the rain. However,  even with the forecast path, more than ten inches of rain is forecast to fall on coastal South Carolina. The NWS's National Water Center is now forecasting the potential for flooding during the next seven days i...

Satellite image from 4pm EDT. Humberto with 90 mph is the well-defined hurricane, with an eye, in the right part of the image. The messy cloudiness from Cuba into the Turks and Cacaos is what is expected to form into Imelda.  We have an exceptionally complex meteorological situation because of the two tropical systems potentially interacting with each other. However, since we have the potential for Imelda to form, it appears the most likely area to be affected is outlined in red, below. Two models are showing Imelda getting into coastal areas and then slowing down or even stalling. IF  this occurs -- hardly a sure thing -- there will be heavy to torrential rains and flooding over part  of this area. Near the coast there will be power outages. Dangerous surf will occur because of both storms.  So, I suggest that if you are in the red area you make preliminary precautions for high winds near the coast and potential heavy rains and flooding inland.  Of course, I wi...

In an abundance of caution, I wish to give a "heads up" to the Carolinas and southern Virginia due the possibility of the effects of Tropical Storm or Hurricane Imelda next week. This is a National Weather Service product showing the amount of rain forecast to fall over the next seven days.  In addition, if the forecast of a strong tropical storm or hurricane occurs in this area, there will be power outages.  The NWS seems agree with the potential in this situation. The hatched area below is where they are forecasting flooding potential next week.  This is a difficult forecast situation so this forecast may be off. However, since we are going into the weekend, it is important for everyone to know the potential for next week. 

As someone who has been a professional meteorologist and weather scientist for more than 55 years, let me state that the tropical weather forecast for the Southeast United States over the next week is both complex and unusual. While there have been tropical systems in close proximity before (it doesn't need climate change to occur), the fact these two systems (and perhaps a third according to one model) will be close together does complicate the forecast. One model currently shows one of the storms approaching the coast, heading out to the Atlantic, heading back to toward the U.S. and then back into the Atlantic (somewhat similar to Sandy but a different location).  I bring this up because the transition of climate news to climate propaganda continues. CBS has more or less farmed out its climate news to an advocacy company called Climate Central . If either Humberto or the potential Imelda takes an unusual path I guarantee it will be blamed on global warming.  So, as you ...

We have a usually complex situation developing that might  cause a tropical storm or hurricane to strike the Atlantic Coast. And in spite of what one newspaper is reporting, we simply do not know whether a storm will come inland or not.  The Details Humberto formed this morning and, at this point, is likely to become a major storm but has a better than 50/50 chance of not approaching the U.S. coast. . The X also has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm or hurricane. If so, its name would be Imelda. Various models and forecast techniques indicate give inconsistent prognoses as to its future path.  Because we believe in "no hurricane hype," this is the first time in 2025 where I believe we have a significant chance of a hurricane affecting the U.S. coast. Please check back and I will provide the best forecasts possible in what is certain to be a challenging forecast situation. 

Two young men were on a Colorado hunting trip and were killed by lightning on September 11. The story is here . Note that sheltering under a tree -- tragically in this case -- is a dangerous thing to do during lightning. As they were in the wild, getting into a relatively low area would have been better. For those of us in non-wilderness areas, any building or automobile (with the top up) is adequate protection.  Currently, there is a large blob of unusually warm water in the North Pacific (this is not El Nino, which is in the South Pacific) which will cause unseasonal weather patterns such as thunderstorms in the high Rockies when snow would ordinarily be expected. As many associate autumn with quiet weather, it is more important than usual to check the weather before outdoor activities. Make sure you have an app like AccuWeather's -- which will let you know when lightning is within about 25 miles -- on your smartphone. This is in addition to its national radar data.  Please...

I am providing updated info on Twitter/X  @usweatherexpert .  There is an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes today.  While over a small geographic area, this is a significant update from the forecast earlier today. The yellow, hatched area has an enhanced risk of strong ( ≥ EF-2) tornadoes. The brown are has a significant risk of tornadoes of a lesser intensity. Here is a zoom-in on the area with the greater risk in eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.  Please keep up on the weather throughout the afternoon in these areas. 

Here is the forecast for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes until 3am. There is also a threat of flash flooding in a few spots.  Forecasts below are until 7am.  Kansas Threat Till 7am in Brown  Oklahoma Threat till 7am in Brown NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a significant chance of a tornado or two in the brown area between now and 7 am Tuesday., Please monitor the weather the rest of the night and make sure you can quickly get the family into you storm shelter area. 

Rainfall amounts between now and 8am EDT Monday.  A few areas of flooding are forecast this week in the hatched area.  Unusual thunderstorms are forecast for central California from now until Wednesday night. Isolated flash floods are possible with the heavier thunderstorms.  While the Atlantic may see several tropical systems, none are forecast to directly affect the mainland United States. Have a great week!

I was a huge Charlie Kirk fan. His respectful, intelligent dialogs with students educated as well as persuaded. I've been just sick since he was martyred. His funeral is today in Phoenix.  I thought it would be appropriate to pass along comments from New York's Cardinal Dolan regarding Mr. Kirk. “When I heard the tragic news, I said, ‘I wonder who he was.’ And then all of a sudden, this overwhelming, this overwhelming sense of sorrow and kind of renewal.” “And I thought, I gotta learn about this guy. And the more I learned about him, I thought, this guy's a modern day Saint Paul. He was a missionary, he's an evangelist, he's a hero.” “He's one that knew what Jesus meant when he said, the truth will set you free. And to do it, Now, I understand he was pretty blunt and he was pretty direct. He didn't try to avoid any controversy. He didn't even try to avoid confrontation. The difference is the way, the mode, the style that he did it, always with respect....

More than five inches of rain is forecast to fall over the Ozarks during the next seven days. The band of heavier rain is forecast to extend east into Tennessee and Kentucky. Little to no flooding is expected because the region ranges from dry to moderate drought conditions. 

Yale, the producer of this new poll is Big Climate's marketing arm . With just 29% of all adults and just 42% of "moderate" Democrats "very worried" about global warming, my opinion is that the tens of millions spent haven't been very effective. Which is a problem because global warm is a problem , it just isn't a crisis. By exaggerating the seriousness of the issue, they have hurt their credibility and made effective action less likely. 

Bermuda is no longer forecast to be affected by Hurricane Gabrielle. Unless something changes, this will be the last update on this storm. 

Tropical Storm Gabrielle has formed in the Atlantic and is forecast to become a hurricane ("H") in four days. The U.S. is not threatened. There is a threat to Bermuda. Please check back and I'll update from time to time. 

Unusually heavy rains -- generally from thunderstorms -- are forecast across the Southwest. The remains of Hurricane Mario will be drawn into the region which will enhance rainfall amounts. The map shows forecast rain from now until Sunday evening. Cloud-to-ground lightning will also be a hazard.  It is important for residents and travelers in the Southwest to keep an eye on the weather the next few days. 

After several weeks of scattered heavy rains, the additional 4-6 inches forecast to fall in south Florida -- especially near Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale -- will raise the potential for more significant flooding between now and the end of the week. The map shows the forecast rain amounts. 

Congratulations to the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center for their tornado forecast made yesterday morning. The forecast is below (brown) and a plot of tornado locations is in red.  What makes this forecast special is that the North Dakota tornadoes were out-of-season and that this may have been one of the worst tornado outbreaks in the history of the state.  Published later today: 62 tornadoes in North Dakota so far in 2025. 

 ... if you didn't see it at the time, please take a look at my  interview with Andy Revkin  pertaining to the creation of, and reasons for, a National Disaster Review Board.  Momentum for a NDRB seems to be building and I'll be talking about later this week. 

The area of North Dakota and far northern South Dakota highlighted in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes later today and this evening. Please keep an eye on the weather in that area. 

The drones are, of course, recreating Michaelangelo's Pieta. 

... some exciting and favorable things are occurring behind the scenes. I hope to be able to report on them the first of the week. In the meantime, please enjoy your weekend! FYI: here are some photos from the Colorado-Utah border area taken Saturday afternoon. You will also find several interesting article below that were posted earlier this week. 

Yesterday was "Global Search-and-Rescue Day," which celebrates NOAA's huge success finding and rescuing people in extreme difficulty, worldwide. NOAA's achievement is tied to its innovative concept in the 1970's to put a search-and-rescue function into its polar orbiting weather satellites. So, if a distress beacon is activated anywhere in the world due to a plane crash, a ship off course, or other emergency the people involved can be rescued. The first rescue was in 1982 in British Columbia.  So far in 2025, 215 have been rescued in the United States. Since 1982, more than 63,000 people have been rescued worldwide.  Congratulations and well done, NOAA!!