There was a lot of controversy in the Midwest yesterday morning as to whether the forecast tornadoes in the Midwest would develop because of heavy morning rains in the region. Tornadoes require "instability," defined as air rising -- perhaps violently ( > 100 mph) in extreme cases -- if it is warm and humid near the ground and cold aloft. Conventional wisdom is that extensive morning rain diminishes tornado potential.  But that's often not true. Take look at the radar of the same region eight hours later.  While the morning rain may keep the air less unstable, I've documented that some of the very biggest tornadoes and tornado outbreaks are preceded by after midnight on the day of the event. My speculation is the evaporating rain lowers the "lifting condensation level" (LCL). Lower LCL's = tornadoes more likely, other factors equal.  Here are just some of the events I have examined: April 27, 2011 (see radar image nearby from 4:49am).  April 3, 1974...

The area in pink is where "catastrophic" flooding is forecast to occur per the National Weather Service's (relatively) new National Water Center. If I were in the pink area, I would be prepared to evacuate. Whatever you do, do not attempt to drive or walk through flooded areas -- that is the #1 reason for flood fatalities. 

...than a European government official using the words "utopia" and "confiscation" in the same sentence The criticism of Elon Musk the past week has mostly been from pathetic people who have created nothing and contributed nothing. They seem unaware  envy and greed are two of the Seven Deadly Sins.  Socialism and communism only benefit the politicians. Want proof? Here are pictures of socialist Elizabeth Warren criticizing Musk from the back seat of a limo (probably paid for by us). Here is a photo of her getting off a private jet.  Unlike government, no one has even been forced to purchase anything created or produced by Musk. We don't have to buy Starlink. We don't have to purchase a Tesla. We don't have to use Twitter/X. He has become a trillionaire by producing these things, creating resuseable rockets (when NASA was laughing at the concept ), and even rescuing astronauts. We made Musk a trillionaire because he created products and services people ...

I am providing additional coverage @usweatherexpert on Twitter. I invite you to join us.  Watches are now out from Illinois to eastern Kansas corresponding to the forecast below -- which is still valid. The red area has a high risk of tornadoes, some of which are forecast by the NWS to be strong or even violent.  The yellow area has an enhanced  risk of tornadoes and some could be strong.  The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes and some could be strong.  There is also a risk of damaging winds throughout this area.  The tornadoes will likely have faster than usual forward movement which may mean less advance notice than usual. It is vital to keep up on the latest weather information throughout the day and, in Indiana and Ohio, into tonight. 

The pale blue is where isolated flooding is forecast to occur. The deep blue is where widespread, significant flooding is forecast. This is valid for the next three days.  UPDATE: Tropical Storm Arthur has formed in the Gulf, just off the Texas coast.  X = location of center of Arthur. D = tropical depression. Orange = radius of 35 mph sustained winds. 

 The first tornado watch of the day is in effect due to a line of severe thunderstorms moving south southeast in the Midwest.  As of 9am, the radar shows the position of the line and the tornado watch (orange).  If you are in the tornado watch, please monitor the weather for the latest warnings.  More tornadoes are possible with a second area of thunderstorms this afternoon. I will post more later this morning. 

There has been a lot of speculation about tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest Wednesday.  I will provide an update Wednesday morning based on the latest information. 

This forecast is for 7am CDT Wednesday until 7am Thursday.  The area in red with the cross hatching has a high  risk of tornadoes on my 4-point scale and some could be strong or intense.  The yellow area has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes.  The brown area has a significant risk of strong tornadoes.  Tomorrow is a day when close attention should be paid to the weather. When tornadoes develop, they could be strong and fast-moving. There may be less time to prepare than usual.

In addition to extensive flooding, we now have a chance of a tropical storm. Peak sustained winds are forecast to be around 40 mph. Yellow is a tropical storm watch.  In addition, here is the latest on the flooding as of 10:35am CDT. Maroon = flash flood warning. Green = flash flood watch. Bright green = flood warning. 

These are all from my Twitter/X feed yesterday morning. What do these have in common? All of the major airlines in the U.S. are terrible.  While we often hear the airlines were "deregulated" during the Carter Administration, they really weren't. They were allowed to choose where they fly and a few other things but they are otherwise heavily regulated. For safety, regulation is fine. For everything else, it's bad.  For example: Suppose a startup airline's customer research said that many businesspeople would pay extra for an airline that allowed three carryons? Might be a great marketing niche. And, suppose they worked with Boeing to create additional safe and secure storage for the extra bags? Great, huh? WRONG!! The legacy airlines have lobbied the FAA to put two carryons and much more that would snuff out innovation into the law. Innovating in the airline industry is practically impossible. So, all we get is cheaper tickets -- which translate to incredibly bad ...

Please keep in mind that flash floods are most dangerous at night. Regardless of time of day turn around, don't drown!   Never walk or drive into a flash flood.  This is the probability of flash flooding from now until 7am CDT. The red area has an enhanced risk of flash floods. Probability of flash flooding from 7am Tuesday to 7am Wednesday.

1:45pm Monday, Updated 5-Day Rainfall Amount Forecast This forecast valid 7p Monday to 7pm Friday Note that yellow= 10" amounts --- original post, still valid -- The green areas are flash flood watches. The maroon areas are flash flood warnings.  The bright green areas are river flood warnings.  A weak tropical flow will move long the Gulf coast area causing heavy to torrential rains.  Remember: the #1 cause of death and injuries in flood situations is driving or walking into flooded areas. Please stay safe and turn around/don't drown. 

When I was a kid in the 1960's, the great Pele came to Kansas City (where I grew up) in the first of innumerable attempts to get Americans to adopt soccer. Our family went to see him (which is why this episode of The Simpsons  is so funny to me) at old Municipal Stadium at 22nd and Brooklyn. This was before Kauffman and Arrowhead Stadia were built.  Today's weather should be great. The first KC World Cup game is tomorrow at 8pm CDT. Our next tornado warning shouldn't be until Wednesday, which is an "off" day, so weather will be okay soccer-wise for the first game.  And, for the benefit of everyone beyond a 100 mile radius of downtown, Arrowhead Stadium is in Missouri , not Kansas. If your GPS tells you otherwise, it is incorrect. For the tournament, FIFA says it must be called "Kansas City Stadium." Don't ask me why. For locals: I have been to three restaurants since Thursday and all were less busy than usual. Jack Stack and 3rd St. Social have imp...

All of the teams have arrived and, thanks to Mother Nature's sense of humor, the city has put on a spectacular display of weather for each on their respective first nights: a tornado warning. Really. Four teams setting up their "base camps" here and four tornado warnings.  Eric Graves, KMBC TV Above is a screen shot of the Argentinian's having a traditional bar-b-que at their hotel last night....while lightning flashed and tornado sirens roared.  The National Weather Service's Kansas City office says it has issued more than 80 tornado warnings so far this year -- by far the most in its history.  Perhaps the most appropriate welcome gift for each player would be a .... weather radio?

Shelf clouds = damaging winds. Winds have gusted to 81 mph behind this one as it approaches Kansas City.  And, hours before the line of thunderstorms that brought damaging winds and tornadoes, weather science told FIFA to cancel the Kansas City FanFest for this evening. That way tens of thousands of people were not  exposed to dangerous weather.  Kansas City International Airport clocked a gust of 79 mph and there were several instances of lofted debris as tornadoes moved across the Metro area. Fox 4 KC

Second Tornado Watch of the Day Tornado Watch Until 11pm Please note that in addition to tornadoes, tennis ball-sized hail and thunderstorm-generated winds of 75 mph are also forecast. If these occur, there will be widespread power outages. ----- Looks like a potentially significant severe weather day.   Tornado Risk The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes and, in the hatched area, strong tornadoes are possible.  Damaging Winds Legend: The pink, hatched area has a high  risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger.  The red, hatched area has an enhanced risk of gusts to 75 mph or stronger. The yellow, hatched area has a significant risk gusts to 75 mph or stronger. The yellow area has a significant risk of gusts to 60 mph or stronger.  Below is an enlargement of the high-risk area: If you live in the high risk area, I recommend putting the car in the garage and bringing in lawn furniture and other items that can be blown about.  Please keep up on the...

My computer has taken a vacation. Actually it is at the Apple Store getting its keyboard fixed (thus the misspellings of the past few days). Until it comes back, I will not be able to update the blog. 

In 2011, Joplin found out there are serious consequences to sounding the sirens too often. Please sort out the problem and insure it never happens again. 

The yellow area has an enhanced  risk of tornadoes and (hatching) some could be strong. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes and there, too, some could be strong.  Please keep up on the weather in these areas later today. 

Watch Issued, Including the Kansas City area Extensive  power failures in central Kansas with the line of thunderstorms moving east. There hav been several tornadoes.  I am posting updates @usweatherexpert  on Twitter/X Below is another view of the radar and watch as of 11:45p. Tornadoes Possible,  75 mph Gusts and 2" Hail Possible Tornadoes Possible, 85 mph gusts,  softball-size hail till 1am.  Second Tornado Watch, Includes  Denver First Tornado Watch of the Day Please note that in addition to tornadoes, softball-sized  hail is forecast along with widespread  90 mph gusts. If this forecast is correct, power outages will also be widespread. Tornado Forecasts Update in tornado forecast for Kansas.  5:05p: I would add McPherson, Marion, Chase and all of Lyon County into the "significant" area. The brown areas have a significant risk of tornadoes. In the hatched areas, the tornadoes could be strong.  Damaging Wind The red area has an ...